Interesting ... potential DoD bill clusterfu*k

[MiltonFriedman]

Wait on any celebration until the very last adjournment for this Senate in 2006 .... AND the Fat Lady Sings ... to quote Dick Motta.

If we are still alive then, it is time to start on next year.

Mr. K, your service has been invaluable. I plan to log in to check on matters over the next week, but understand that we are largely locked into a ride for the duration.

Keep us posted as you are able.

[Ron Burgundy]

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We have jobs, you know.

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Thank god for people with real jobs lol.

[disjunction]

From a total outsider's perspective, I'll be a little bit surprised if this bill doesn't wind up passing before the recess. And of that 80% chance I'd consider it more likely than not that some kind of gambling language is included, because the only people that care about the issue have a decent amount of power, and they want it so.

I know that the insiders always get caught up in the minutiae of "Well the bill may not pass because Senator X has the privilege of holding up any bill he wants as long as it is cloudy weather at 3pm on a Monday, and even if he doesn't, all of the office typewriters may be broken", but it just seems to me that more legislators want this passed than not, that there is some natural posturing before striking a deal, and there is nothing overly substantive stopping it.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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I know that the insiders always get caught up in the minutiae of "Well the bill may not pass because Senator X has the privilege of holding up any bill he wants as long as it is cloudy weather at 3pm on a Monday, and even if he doesn't, all of the office typewriters may be broken", but it just seems to me that more legislators want this passed than not, that there is some natural posturing before striking a deal, and there is nothing overly substantive stopping it.

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I know it might seem that way, but the extremely high degree of infighting, coupled with the extremely compressed time schedule, makes the possibility that the bill gets stuck quite high. The conference committee report has been held up for weeks as the conferees are fighting about what sort of prayers military chaplains should be able to say. Now at literally the eleventh hour, the Speaker of the House has stepped in and instisted on the insertion of two items that are orders of magnitude more contentious than the military prayer issue.

Honestly, I think there's a possibility that Hastert is trying to force a stalemate. I think he figures that if the bill passes with his riders attached, that gives Republicans a couple of extra talking points for the campaign trail. And if it doesn't pass, that might be even better, because he can tar Democrats with the "OBSTRUCTIONIST!" brush.

[kleath]

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So each new democrat that wins a seat in the house is +EV for us?

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Not necessarily. A specific dem could be for a ban while their specific opponent is against it but the house bills had more support from Republicans than Democrats.

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I think the point was if the dems have a large majority shift to them they would block most bills in lame duck on principle so they could vote on said bills when they would have a much bigger contigent next year and could control it much more to their liking. In which case it would be good for a large amount of dems to be elected if gambling could possibly get through the year untouched.

[jrbick]

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[ QUOTE ]
I know that the insiders always get caught up in the minutiae of "Well the bill may not pass because Senator X has the privilege of holding up any bill he wants as long as it is cloudy weather at 3pm on a Monday, and even if he doesn't, all of the office typewriters may be broken", but it just seems to me that more legislators want this passed than not, that there is some natural posturing before striking a deal, and there is nothing overly substantive stopping it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it might seem that way, but the extremely high degree of infighting, coupled with the extremely compressed time schedule, makes the possibility that the bill gets stuck quite high. The conference committee report has been held up for weeks as the conferees are fighting about what sort of prayers military chaplains should be able to say. Now at literally the eleventh hour, the Speaker of the House has stepped in and instisted on the insertion of two items that are orders of magnitude more contentious than the military prayer issue.

Honestly, I think there's a possibility that Hastert is trying to force a stalemate. I think he figures that if the bill passes with his riders attached, that gives Republicans a couple of extra talking points for the campaign trail. And if it doesn't pass, that might be even better, because he can tar Democrats with the "OBSTRUCTIONIST!" brush.

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Wow that's a very interesting/encouraging point here. I mean, I won't feel better until this session adjourns with online poker in the clear, but this is a valid point of encouragement to tag onto grassroots efforts on our part as well as all of the other elements geared in our favor (time, priority issues, controversial issues bogging down the process, etc etc).

[whitepotatoe]

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Honestly, I think there's a possibility that Hastert is trying to force a stalemate. I think he figures that if the bill passes with his riders attached, that gives Republicans a couple of extra talking points for the campaign trail. And if it doesn't pass, that might be even better, because he can tar Democrats with the "OBSTRUCTIONIST!" brush.

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This is exactly what I was thinking. Hopefully he has chosen to accept this mission.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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Monday morning update:

CongressDailyAM is reporting no further progress on the prayer issue and a few other outstanding issues on the DoD Authorization bill this morning. At present, it looks like House and Senate leaders will be pushing for passage of four military-related bills this week, though it is unclear if any of them will be packaged together. Those bills are: DoD Appropriations (the cash), DoD Authorization (the plan), Military Tribunals (rules to try the people we're holding at Gitmo), and NSA Wiretapping. Of the four, the only one that will definitely pass this week is the appropriations bill.

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Interestingly (?), Frist did not mention the Authorization bill in his remarks to the Senate floor this afternoon.

Tim Curran of Roll Call did mention the Authorization bill as one of five bills that are candidates for floor time, but also indicated it's unlikely that all five hit the floor and touched on the in-fighting on the Authorization bill at the conference committee stage.

(All of this from C-SPAN2)

[disjunction]

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And if it doesn't pass, that might be even better, because he can tar Democrats with the "OBSTRUCTIONIST!" brush.

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I try to follow these threads but I haven't heard much about the Dems other than Mr. K's comments on immigration above. Doesn't this same logic mean the Dems are going to do as much as they can to stay out of the way so that they won't be labeled obstructionist?

And that, with infighting rather than the Dems taking the blame, the Republicans absolutely have to find a way to compromise and pass this bill so that they don't appear incompetent? Historically, the Republicans always seem to be able to unite at the end of the day.

[jrz1972]

Even if we manage to dodge this particular bullet (the DoD bill), aren't we still in huge trouble if/when the Senate considers an omnibus spending bill after the elections? People are resistant to adding extraneous stuff to the DoD legislation, but the omnibus bill is all about lumping extraneous stuff together in one big opposition-proof package. It will be loaded with pork, so it's unlikely to be blocked/stalemated, and the process-based arguments about how wrong it is to tack iGaming stuff into a defense bill won't carry any weight when it comes something like that.

Maybe Berge or K can comment further, but I'm actually very pessimistic about our overall chances here regardless of what happens with the DoD Authorization. Frist has demonstrated that he's willing to fight for this thing, and even if he can't succeed in hitching in onto this particular piece of legislation, he shouldn't have a problem attaching it to some other bill.