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#41
01-27-2006, 03:23 PM
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Re: Folding pocket rockets pf
[ QUOTE ]
I'm still new to the game but I play to win money and don't put a lot of value in playing pots against many opponets just for the sake of the cards I hold. I've found it is much too easy to lose a lot of money in a marginal situation (all-in, before the flop, against 4 opponents, even if I'm the favorite) and then have to play a hundred hands to win back what I lost on my pocket AA than to just fold that one hand and take advantage of the next ten hands where I can see a couple of flops for a reasonable investment and continue adding dollars to my stake. How wrong am I? I'm talking about NL ring games, not tourneys. I think there is a time and a place to push any hand including AA, and maybe a time not to push. [/ QUOTE ] Can someone tell me my rough EV if I go all-in on the button in the above situation over 1,000,000 hands? Say my opponents have KQs, KK, J10s, 76s (very loose 1/2 NL game) as an example. 
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#42
01-27-2006, 03:28 PM
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Re: Folding pocket rockets pf
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm still new to the game but I play to win money and don't put a lot of value in playing pots against many opponets just for the sake of the cards I hold. I've found it is much too easy to lose a lot of money in a marginal situation (all-in, before the flop, against 4 opponents, even if I'm the favorite) and then have to play a hundred hands to win back what I lost on my pocket AA than to just fold that one hand and take advantage of the next ten hands where I can see a couple of flops for a reasonable investment and continue adding dollars to my stake. How wrong am I? I'm talking about NL ring games, not tourneys. I think there is a time and a place to push any hand including AA, and maybe a time not to push. [/ QUOTE ] Can someone tell me my rough EV if I go all-in on the button in the above situation over 1,000,000 hands? Say my opponents have KQs, KK, J10s, 76s (very loose 1/2 NL game) as an example. [/ QUOTE ]Assume 2 short stacks and 3 average nearly equal stacks including mine?
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#43
01-27-2006, 04:50 PM
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Re: Folding pocket rockets pf
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm still new to the game but I play to win money and don't put a lot of value in playing pots against many opponets just for the sake of the cards I hold. I've found it is much too easy to lose a lot of money in a marginal situation (all-in, before the flop, against 4 opponents, even if I'm the favorite) and then have to play a hundred hands to win back what I lost on my pocket AA than to just fold that one hand and take advantage of the next ten hands where I can see a couple of flops for a reasonable investment and continue adding dollars to my stake. How wrong am I? I'm talking about NL ring games, not tourneys. I think there is a time and a place to push any hand including AA, and maybe a time not to push. [/ QUOTE ] Can someone tell me my rough EV if I go all-in on the button in the above situation over 1,000,000 hands? Say my opponents have KQs, KK, J10s, 76s (very loose 1/2 NL game) as an example. [/ QUOTE ] twodimes is your friend: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1491405 pokenum -h ac as - kc ks - kd qd - jh th - 7c 6c Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ac 366022 43.03 483796 56.87 850 0.10 0.430 Ks Kc 56229 6.61 790166 92.89 4273 0.50 0.068 Kd Qd 104399 12.27 741996 87.23 4273 0.50 0.125 Jh Th 160733 18.89 689085 81.01 850 0.10 0.189 7c 6c 159012 18.69 690806 81.21 850 0.10 0.187 Your shortstack requirement needlessly complicates things (you don't specify which hands are the shortstack), so we'll assume everyone has the same stack size of $100. With 43% equity in a 5-way pot, you will lose $100 net 57% of the time, but win $400 net 43% of the time (this ignores the .1% you split the pot). Per hand: (.43 * 400) + (.57 * -100) = 172 + -57 = 115. On average, you lose out on $115 (!!!) dollars in profit each time you fold in this situation. Over a million hands, that is 115 million dollars. That's right, 115 million dollars. Even though you win the showdown only 43% of the time, the payoff is so big when you do hit that it should be obvious that folding is about the worst thing you can possibly do.
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#44
01-27-2006, 05:29 PM
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Re: Folding pocket rockets pf
[ QUOTE ]
I'm still new to the game but I play to win money and don't put a lot of value in playing pots against many opponets just for the sake of the cards I hold. I've found it is much too easy to lose a lot of money in a marginal situation (all-in, before the flop, against 4 opponents, even if I'm the favorite) and then have to play a hundred hands to win back what I lost on my pocket AA than to just fold that one hand and take advantage of the next ten hands where I can see a couple of flops for a reasonable investment and continue adding dollars to my stake. How wrong am I? I'm talking about NL ring games, not tourneys. I think there is a time and a place to push any hand including AA, and maybe a time not to push. [/ QUOTE ] If you aren't willing to push it all into the middle preflop with AA, then perhaps it might be beneficial to move down in stakes.
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#45
01-27-2006, 05:52 PM
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Re: Folding pocket rockets pf
I would not fold pocket aces, preflop, under any circumstances. You have the best hand possible preflop and it can't get any better than this.
If you don't agree with this, then you need to play poker a little bit more agressively. -HoldemPokerPlyr
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#47
01-27-2006, 11:53 PM
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Re: Folding pocket rockets pf
No it wasn't. There are minimal times when you have your opponent exactly where you want him and you conceive a well disguised plan to get his stack. You have to take every edge that is offered. The only time I agree with dumping aces preflop is in super sattelites when you have enough chips to coast to the payout (seat in big tourny). There, their is no need to "gamble" because you have enough chips to accomplish your goal. Here there just isn't enough situations for you to wait for a better opportunity to quadruple up! Jump on that boat. If you lose, atleast you know you made the right play and that is variance for you. This game is about EV. This is a ++EV spot.
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