Value Betting Question

VictorHugo · #1 09-19-2006, 03:59 PM

I basically need someone to clear my thinking a bit about value betting...

When value betting should I bet more ie (something like the pot) when there are more draws and less ie ( something like half the pot) when there are less draws ..

or vice versa...

My thinking is that I want the draws to pay so if there are alot of draws I should bet more, but at the same time I find myself thinking I want these people to draw so I should bet less.

Note: I realize I should bet enough to not give them odds period, so thats not my question my question is more on when should I bet more or less while not giving them odds.

For this example lets say I am against one other player, because I know there more players are out there I should be more, or is that flawed too?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Unknown Soldier · #2 09-19-2006, 06:52 PM

bet as much as you think they will call. If you play at lower tables you can probably get them to call a pot-sized bet or even more with a flush draw, I've seen players call their entire stack off with a draw. If you are not sure what draw they are on, and there seem to be a couple out there, bet more say 2/3-pot

Louie Landale · #3 09-19-2006, 11:53 PM

Generally bet more when there are straight and flush draws out, bet less when there are not.

Your thinking about wanting the draws in is a disaster. These are the folks that have huge implied odds over you. If you bet half the pot heads up the opponent is getting 3:1 for his 4:1 draw to make it on the turn. Surely he can make that extra missing 1 up from you on turn or river when he makes it.

Its MUCH worse when you don't know what kind of draw he has. If the board is Q-T-4 2-flush, how do you like getting called with say KQ? So bet more.

- Louie

Dealn Poker · #4 09-20-2006, 04:09 AM

Personaly I do not want you drawing to me unless I have the nuts or the better draw. I bet to take it down right there. If they still come with bad odds so be it.

Galwegian · #5 09-20-2006, 05:52 AM

Here is my noob effort at explaining a value bet.
Let p=probability of winning the pot and
n=numbr of callers that you expect.
If (n+1)p > 1 then your bet is a value bet.
That is if (n+1)p>1 then you expected share
of the bet plus all the calls is bigger than
your bet.

Example: Say you have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], get a preflop caller and the board is 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] after the turn. Say that you're sure that your single opponent has a flush draw (based on your knowledge of his play). Then you have about 80% chance of winning at a showdown. So p=0.80. So any bet that you expect to get called by a flush draw has value here
(1+1)0.8=1.6>1. (In fact for every dollar you bet that you expect to be called you will get 1.6 dollars back)

Of course your bet sizing here should take other factors into consideration such as your equity in the existing pot. If the hand was just checked down then your expected share of the existing pot is 80%. A bet that you think will be called by a flush draw doesn't increase your equity in the existing pot. However a bet that wins the pot right there increases that equity to 100%. So the question is, can you get more that 20% of the existing pot from a value bet? If you think that the answer is yes then the value bet is +ev, if no then bet big enough to make him fold.

calc · #6 09-20-2006, 08:13 AM

in sizing your bet you should also think about the remaining stack sizes. If the effective remaining stack size is less than say 30% of the pot after the turn bet has been called, then you will have to call the river even when you suspect your opponent has outdrawn you. But on the other hand when your opponent misses he will check fold. So, when sizing a turn bet that you think will get called, if the remaining effective stack size is such that it will be very hard for you to lay down on the river regardless of what card comes because you will be getting such good pot odds, then you should get it all in on the turn.

obviously you should be inclined to bet more if your opponent is a passive calling station and not prone to river bluffs. If your opponent is an aggressive and creative bluffer but doesn't like to call off massive bets with a draw, preferring to sense weakness and outplay opponents, then you would tend to bet less...

Unknown Soldier · #7 09-20-2006, 08:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your thinking about wanting the draws in is a disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. NLHE is about winning bets, not pots. If you give someone terible odds to call and they do... great! Your are taking their money every time! The skill is knowing what jthey have, so as not to pay them off and justify their optimistic calls if they make their -EV shot.