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#21
09-19-2006, 02:42 PM
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Re: Introducing: $20/180 Challenge Prop Bets!! Come in and bet!
[ QUOTE ]
P(An average player making at least 2 final tables out of 5 tournaments)= 1-P(0 FT out of 5 tourneys)-P(1 FT out of 5 tourneys)= P(0 FT out of 5 tourneys) = .95^5 = .77 P(1 FT out of 5 tourneys) = 5 * .05 * .95^4 = .20 P(An average player making 2+ FT out of 5 tourneys)= 1-.77-.20 = .03 If there are 25 average players... P(At least 1 player FT 2+ tourneys) = 1- P(25 players not FT 2+ tourneys) = 1-.97^25 = .533 Since the quality of players is better than average, this is a +EV bet. I'll place as much money as I can on this one. [/ QUOTE ] How much money is as much as you can? 
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#22
09-19-2006, 02:48 PM
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Re: Introducing: $20/180 Challenge Prop Bets!! Come in and bet!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] P(An average player making at least 2 final tables out of 5 tournaments)= 1-P(0 FT out of 5 tourneys)-P(1 FT out of 5 tourneys)= P(0 FT out of 5 tourneys) = .95^5 = .77 P(1 FT out of 5 tourneys) = 5 * .05 * .95^4 = .20 P(An average player making 2+ FT out of 5 tourneys)= 1-.77-.20 = .03 If there are 25 average players... P(At least 1 player FT 2+ tourneys) = 1- P(25 players not FT 2+ tourneys) = 1-.97^25 = .533 Since the quality of players is better than average, this is a +EV bet. I'll place as much money as I can on this one. [/ QUOTE ] How much money is as much as you can? [/ QUOTE ] BTW EBO this is so annoying that you went to the trouble to figure this out!!! LOL.. I was just picking numbers from the air. The funny thing is that I was originally going to make it -150 that a person will make 2 FTs!
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#23
09-19-2006, 03:26 PM
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Re: Introducing: $20/180 Challenge Prop Bets!! Come in and bet!
LOL propbetaments.
JUST KIDDING!!!!!!
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#26
09-19-2006, 04:51 PM
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Re: Introducing: $20/180 Challenge Prop Bets!! Come in and bet!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'll put $20 on someone making 2 final tables. PM to confirm bet. [/ QUOTE ] we can do it here... Tedtodd u want to do $10? Kinda dumb since I hope to make 2 FTs but atleast its some action. [/ QUOTE ] haha- $10 is fine, unless u deem the line unfair. but it looks like Timex might take some action. sucks- i played the challenge the first 3 weeks- but had golf last wed, and now soccer tomorrow night....next week i guess.
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#27
09-19-2006, 05:03 PM
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Re: Introducing: $20/180 Challenge Prop Bets!! Come in and bet!
yah I was just about to post jurollo is on the oregon trail. I think hes able to kill buffalo's now and he was smart enough to bring 20 boxes of bullets.
On a side note I will bet even money myself vs any 2 players in the challenge you pick that I will have a higher score than either of their highest. When you say the field 3 to 1? who does that include those not listed as individuals?
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#28
09-19-2006, 05:17 PM
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Re: Introducing: $20/180 Challenge Prop Bets!! Come in and bet!
apparantly bonds and skier to vagina's are dripping too much for them to take my 2 vs 1 best off them bet for 1k. Anyone else want to challenge me?
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#29
09-19-2006, 05:32 PM
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Re: Introducing: $20/180 Challenge Prop Bets!! Come in and bet!
[ QUOTE ]
apparantly bonds and skier to vagina's are dripping too much for them to take my 2 vs 1 best off them bet for 1k. Anyone else want to challenge me? [/ QUOTE ] That is a load of crap, skier is the one with the vagina, get your facts straight.
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