Online gambling to be attached to defense bill???- article Uh oh!!!

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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As I have said before, delay will generally be a zero sum game: the longer the conference report remains open, the more time Frist and Co. have to cut a deal. On the flop side, the longer it remains open, the less time Congress will have to act on the matter if a deal is not struck.

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Is there any material likelihood that the bill won't get out of conference before the lame duck session? And would that be good, bad, or indifferent for us?

[otctrader]

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do many of the major investment banks or hedge funds run Washington offices where they monitor government actions for potential impact on investments?

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Not necessarily Washington-domiciled offices, but most have significant research staffs exclusively devoted to government actions and procuring superior information for their own benefit and/or sale to third parties. Some of these guys are brilliant, others are hacks who provide no more insight than the evening news; depends on the firm.

If you cross the line to more insidious matters, there has always been some degree of malfeasance on the part of officials in divulging non-public government information to sources who can trade on it for significant profit (leaking labor reports, crop reports, etc...) As long as its not overt, it's pretty hard to trace, and in many cases the act of profiting from it isn't covered by insider trading laws, so it becomes more of an ethical issue immune to prosecution.

[crockpot]

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Anyway I agree about Tradesports. There are only a handful of trades made every week, and frankly probably half of those are made by 2+2ers. Also, there aren't enough contracts. Right now, the bid-ask spread is 16.3-32.8 (!). It's probably fine for a rough ballpark estimate but I don't think "oh, TS went down 2%, something must have happened".

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i agree that TS isn't the most accurate source for this, but it does have fairly efficient markets on more quantifiable issues, like a team's chances of winning a game or a pennant. here, nobody feels they have enough information to set an accurate line, or to wager a lot of money on it.

people should certainly not overreact to a minor fluctuation on TS, and any major fluctuation will be a reaction to news that has been made public anyway.

now get back to writing some more baseball articles. i need reading material.

[TruePoker CEO]

Regardless of how this goes this session, I'll set you up with a tab at the Tune Inn.

[Mr.K]

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Regardless of how this goes this session, I'll set you up with a tab at the Tune Inn.

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I hear that place has pretty amazing burgers... but have never been there that I can recall.

I've been pondering a 2+2 legislation forum get together on Capitol Hill in December some time once this is all settled one way or the other. I know of a few folks who would probably be happy to host a home game over drinks and informal networking. I get the sense we have contributors in this forum from all kinds of complimentary walks of life: some inside Congress, some that lobby Congress, some that observe Congress, some that work in finance, and so on.

[Wynton]

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Regardless of how this goes this session, I'll set you up with a tab at the Tune Inn.

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Oh lord. When I went to law school in DC a thousand years ago, I spent many hours at that place. My head hurts thinking about it.

[Berge20]

First of all, I should hurt you for never going to the Inn.
Although, I loved the qualifier of "that I can remember"

[Mr.K]

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Is there any material likelihood that the bill won't get out of conference before the lame duck session? And would that be good, bad, or indifferent for us?

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Good question. I believe there IS some likelyhood that the DoD Authorization might not make it to the floor in September. Maybe a 15% chance of that happening -- it happened last year if memory serves me.

In that event, the bill would be considered in the lame duck. I don't see any way they fail to pass a DoD Authorization this year, although as I said before such a bill is not technically necessary. The appropriations bill, which has the ca$h and is a different bill, is the one that really matters.

In a lame duck scenario, I think online poker players would fare worse. Frist and Co. would have significantly more time to hammer out a deal. The nexus of Iowa's importance in selecting presidential candidates with Frist's desire to get the GOP nomination with his leadership post in the Senate with his pending retirement with Leach's home state of IA creates a tremendous one-time coming together of events that favor continued pressure for passage right through the end. I hadn't fully realized this until this past weekend. Those are some pretty intense forces, and they should not be taken lightly when combined. Getting good press in IA, and commitments from Congressman to help in 08 is a priority for Frist, and I believe he'll do almost anything to move forward on those fronts. Just my guess -- I don't know him or his plans directly.

[Mr.K]

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First of all, I should hurt you for never going to the Inn.
Although, I loved the qualifier of "that I can remember"

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When have I *not* chosen my words carefully in this forum? TY GG SHIP IT.

[kickabuck]

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First of all, I should hurt you for never going to the Inn.
Although, I loved the qualifier of "that I can remember"

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Hi Berge, just thought I'd let you know that your posts along with Mr.K's and a few others are eagerly anticipated by those of us whose incomes are dependent upon online poker. As such could you do the kindness of forewarning us with a * or something if your post is of the inane variety? It would save our hopes from being dashed. Thanks for your cooperation.