Online gambling to be attached to defense bill???- article Uh oh!!!

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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The thing is the news media and analysts at the big firm are not necessarily the best sources for why a stock is up or down.

Hedge fund money is generally involved in short term "newsy" type trading. So id trust the market moves more than anything. i would tend to beleive that the moves in the last two days are vased on the US story almost entirely.

But yeah in gerneral you can watch CNBC and they will make up a reason why the market was up or down alot and if you know a bit more what going on it sometimes is not the real story.

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Yeah I heard a real good story on NPR a while back where a lot of very bright economists and market gurus were basically making fun of market wraps. "Booking profits" was their favorite faux explanation for a market shift.

[malo]

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Monday Morning Update:
Among the most contentious provisions is House language that would allow military chaplains to pray in the name of Jesus Christ. Supported by several House conservatives, House Armed Services Chairman Hunter has said he will not back down on the issue, leaving little room for compromise with Senate Armed Services Chairman Warner, who opposes the language."

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If I am reading this right, is it possible our fine elected officials could get bogged down in bickering over how to word prayers?

Wouldn't complain if they get so wrapped up in this, Frist's efforts fall by the wayside.

[JuntMonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is the news media and analysts at the big firm are not necessarily the best sources for why a stock is up or down.

Hedge fund money is generally involved in short term "newsy" type trading. So id trust the market moves more than anything. i would tend to beleive that the moves in the last two days are vased on the US story almost entirely.

But yeah in gerneral you can watch CNBC and they will make up a reason why the market was up or down alot and if you know a bit more what going on it sometimes is not the real story.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of years ago I worked for a small investment firm. One of the things I used to do was put together the quarterly performance sheets for different funds. A portfolio manager told me flat-out that "people want to hear a story, so make up some BS".

Not that there's anything wrong with that...people just want to hear that strong sales of iPod helped drive the fund's performance (even if it had little to do with it).

So yea, I have little respect for any market analysis.

[Jay Cohen]

I made my living trading on the options floor many moons ago.

One time they was a severe sell off at the end of the day out of nowhere.

The evening business news, Paul ??, pre-CNBC, said that the sell off was because investors were disappointed with the latest 10 year Treasuries auction.

The next day the truth came out. Some guys at Solomon Brothers, I think it was Solomon, accidentally activated the sell programs. Hence the market sell off.

My point is the analysts and talking heads always feel they have to give you a reason for something. Truth is, sometimes there is no reason at all. It's just a bunch of stuff that happens and the price is the collective result. There doesn't have to be a reason.

[Mr.K]

[ QUOTE ]
I made my living trading on the options floor many moons ago.

One time they was a severe sell off at the end of the day out of nowhere.

The evening business news, Paul ??, pre-CNBC, said that the sell off was because investors were disappointed with the latest 10 year Treasuries auction.

The next day the truth came out. Some guys at Solomon Brothers, I think it was Solomon, accidentally activated the sell programs. Hence the market sell off.

My point is the analysts and talking heads always feel they have to give you a reason for something. Truth is, sometimes there is no reason at all. It's just a bunch of stuff that happens and the price is the collective result. There doesn't have to be a reason.

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I have little to no knowledge of the world of finance, but stories like this one (re: Solomon & the accidental selloff), as well as each of the little nuggets in "Liar's Poker" are truly fascinating. On the point of news in Washington influencing the markets, do many of the major investment banks or hedge funds run Washington offices where they monitor government actions for potential impact on investments?

[antneye]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I made my living trading on the options floor many moons ago.

One time they was a severe sell off at the end of the day out of nowhere.

The evening business news, Paul ??, pre-CNBC, said that the sell off was because investors were disappointed with the latest 10 year Treasuries auction.

The next day the truth came out. Some guys at Solomon Brothers, I think it was Solomon, accidentally activated the sell programs. Hence the market sell off.

My point is the analysts and talking heads always feel they have to give you a reason for something. Truth is, sometimes there is no reason at all. It's just a bunch of stuff that happens and the price is the collective result. There doesn't have to be a reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have little to no knowledge of the world of finance, but stories like this one (re: Solomon & the accidental selloff), as well as each of the little nuggets in "Liar's Poker" are truly fascinating. On the point of news in Washington influencing the markets, do many of the major investment banks or hedge funds run Washington offices where they monitor government actions for potential impact on investments?

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Major letdown. I saw you listed as the last post and thought some news broke................Oh well, I guess you are entitled to ASK questions like the rest of us. Just don't make a habit of it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Mr.K]

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Major letdown. I saw you listed as the last post and thought some news broke................Oh well, I guess you are entitled to ASK questions like the rest of us. Just don't make a habit of it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Fine, fine, here's the latest from CongressDaily's PM edition... not much to chew on:

"Defense authorization conferees originally planned to wrap up work on the bill last week, but lawmakers left for the weekend before resolving several personnel and other issues. Aides said they hoped to complete the conference report in the next several days, with a House vote possible this week."

Analysis: Things have slowed down due to a few disagreements on military issues. The talk of nongermane policy riders has died down, though I remain unconvinced that this means that efforts on these items have diminished. We are now likely looking at a conference report being filed by Thursday mid-day, with a House vote either at the end of the week, or even early next week. Stay tuned, etc.

Also, I heard from some staff members today that things were stalled on discussions of personnel matters, and that the Senate would likely not act on any conference report until next week. Apparently National Guard issues are a real sticking point right now -- though I am not familiar with exactly what the flap is. As I have said before, delay will generally be a zero sum game: the longer the conference report remains open, the more time Frist and Co. have to cut a deal. On the flop side, the longer it remains open, the less time Congress will have to act on the matter if a deal is not struck.

[Beastmaster]

Do you think the time factor will play a role in trying to add anything to this bill. I would think they wouldn't want anything that could cause anymore distraction in getting this passed?

Any educated guesses on the outcome? Or is this still too murky?

[Silent1]

Something related to the authorization bill. Just FYI. The "earmark" section asks them not to earmark pet projects, etc.

I assume the Leach bill requires some funding discussion for implementation. How will this be related to defense?

http://www.ntu.org/main/letters_deta...?letter_id=460

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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Apparently National Guard issues are a real sticking point right now -- though I am not familiar with exactly what the flap is.

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Per the Fox News story that I cited above in this thread, the original bill included langauge that would have expanded the government's power to put National Guard troops under federal command in times of disaster like Hurricane Katrina. State governors are unhappy about this and it seems like the conferees are having a tough time deciding what to do about it.

Anyway, thanks for the update as always.