|
|
#21
09-15-2006, 04:28 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
[ QUOTE ]
Realistically, what is my best chance to double up? Well, I will have to get some cards and actually have someone call, or get lucky when someone calls my Q8 (or whatever) allin with an AT etc and double up that way. [/ QUOTE ] You'd think you had to be be up against similar ranges in the K9o hand. K9o runs into too many wrong-end 60/40's and is easily dominated otherwise. At the best, you're hoping to flip pairs lower than 88 OR dominating something. That doesn't mean you call here. The key to the Q8 > AT hypothetical is first-in vig, because you can tick a few points of FE into the factors. 
|
|
#22
09-15-2006, 04:35 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
[ QUOTE ]
You'd think you had to be be up against similar ranges in the K9o hand. K9o runs into too many wrong-end 60/40's and is easily dominated otherwise. At the best, you're hoping to flip pairs lower than 88 OR dominating something. That doesn't mean you call here. [/ QUOTE ] Agree, but what if the factors surrounding the hand conspire to convince me that he is making a move, using the seemingly omniprescient "I'd rather move allin with 72 than call w/ K9" pervasive crutch. [ QUOTE ] The key to the Q8 > AT hypothetical is first-in vig, because you can tick a few points of FE into the factors. [/ QUOTE ] Aha. But AT still beats Q8 more than 50/50, whereas my K9 is a 25% hand (albeit BARELY) and there is a very very very good chance that the shortstack is making a move and leaning on the FE crutch (because he IS a good player and would be aware of using first in vig with 'any two')
|
|
#24
09-15-2006, 04:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
Well, if you trust your reads and decide to call with K9o based on that read, you're gambling. An educated gamble, to be sure, but it's still a gamble. Problem is, you're rarely going to get the math guys to agree with this on the merits of your hand alone, and they have a valid point. There are less hazardous spots to pick up chips in a MTT.
|
|
#25
09-15-2006, 04:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you trust your reads and decide to call with K9o based on that read, you're gambling. An educated gamble, to be sure, but it's still a gamble. Problem is, you're rarely going to get the math guys to agree with this on the merits of your hand alone, and they have a valid point. There are less hazardous spots to pick up chips in a MTT. [/ QUOTE ] I'm a math guy. If the opponent is good and the blinds are tight, folding is awful. Steve
|
|
#26
09-15-2006, 04:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
Devil's advocate, man. I'd have made the call too.
|
|
#27
09-15-2006, 04:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
[ QUOTE ]
This is a very clear fold. 1. It's very hard to imagine you having an edge here. At best you are gonna be up against 76s or something like that. But your edge in this case won't make up for the time when the opponent has ANY A or a pair. [/ QUOTE ] No, at best he might be going with "any King" and I have him dominated, or 'any Q', or he is using FE to buy the pot with any2 ala 76s or 76o [ QUOTE ] 2. You are on the button so you aren't gonna have to pay the BB soon. [/ QUOTE ] 4 hands until BB, at which point I'll lose 1/5 (with antes) my stack unless I pick up a top 25% hand or better (which I have now) in the next four hands, make a move and either a) dont get called or b) have it hold up -- or make a move with Any2 to steal the blinds and not get called. [ QUOTE ] 3. There are 140k in chips on your table...so there should be a couple of small stacks on the other table....so it won't be unheard of for you to survive for the FT, where you get to see more hands btw blinds. [/ QUOTE ] I don't want to survive to the finl table with 6K chips. 3K blinds are about 5 mins away. And yes, I realize the blinds wont eat me up as much once at the finl table. But getting there with under 10K chips is not what I'm 'hoping' to do, espesh with 3K blinds and decent antes. There is one shorter stack at my table.. and he is the one 'making the move' [ QUOTE ] 4. Calling and winning won't help your case as much as you'd like. In this case you are going to kill your image, AND you will still be short-handed where you'd really like to have a tighter image. [/ QUOTE ] My image was tight, as was everyone else's by this point. All stealing our share of the blinds and only calling with v good hands. Complete luckfest. By calling here: a) I can show I am willing to gamble, thus preventing other folks from making a move at me with any2, so when they do try to get my blinds I will give them credit. I had been tight to this point, and by showing a bold call (if correct) people will not want to mess with me, espesh once I get back above 20K chips. I had lost about 20K earlier with AK vs KK, and my other showdowns had been premium. I dont believe they would 'suddenly' take me for a loose donk, they might in fact steal my blinds less and possible respect me more [ QUOTE ] 5. You are deep enough that you still have FE. [/ QUOTE ] Barely. I'm going to have to 'make a move' soon, with or without cards
|
|
#28
09-15-2006, 05:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well, if you trust your reads and decide to call with K9o based on that read, you're gambling. An educated gamble, to be sure, but it's still a gamble. Problem is, you're rarely going to get the math guys to agree with this on the merits of your hand alone, and they have a valid point. There are less hazardous spots to pick up chips in a MTT. [/ QUOTE ] I'm a math guy. If the opponent is good and the blinds are tight, folding is awful. Steve [/ QUOTE ] Sweet, finally someone who doesn't think my gamble was bad. The blinds were VERY tight, so I went allin. Villain had J9o and I lost to a J, BUT it felt soo good to make a 'good call/read' (as opposed to standard push n pray) against a decent opp. I did get to the finl table through sheer luck My main concern with these finl tbl bubble/shorterhanded situations is, if e1 is playing standard FE push/ prem call preflop at 5-15BB, why not gamble in special spots? If everyone says to 'steal blinds twice, get a hand', are they not gambling just as much.. leaving it up to the cards? If I do manage to steal the blinds twice without a call, I'm praying. If I get called on one of those attempts (which is fairly likely), I'm praying that my likely worse cards get lucky. All the while praying that I actually catch a premium hand.
|
|
#30
09-15-2006, 05:16 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I'd rather open-push with garbage than call an open-pusher, even in LP, and even with this hand. [/ QUOTE ] If everyone thinks this way, FE should be re-evaluated. If first-in-Vig is being overused/abused, then it can be countered. If you knew what cards your opponents had (pushing with garbage), would you still fold K9?
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
