Calling Equity? late 20/180

[NoExtinction]

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This is a very clear fold.

1. It's very hard to imagine you having an edge here. At best you are gonna be up against 76s or something like that. But your edge in this case won't make up for the time when the opponent has ANY A or a pair.

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No, at best he might be going with "any King" and I have him dominated, or 'any Q', or he is using FE to buy the pot with any2 ala 76s or 76o

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2. You are on the button so you aren't gonna have to pay the BB soon.


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4 hands until BB, at which point I'll lose 1/5 (with antes) my stack unless I pick up a top 25% hand or better (which I have now) in the next four hands, make a move and either a) dont get called or b) have it hold up -- or make a move with Any2 to steal the blinds and not get called.

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3. There are 140k in chips on your table...so there should be a couple of small stacks on the other table....so it won't be unheard of for you to survive for the FT, where you get to see more hands btw blinds.


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I don't want to survive to the finl table with 6K chips. 3K blinds are about 5 mins away. And yes, I realize the blinds wont eat me up as much once at the finl table. But getting there with under 10K chips is not what I'm 'hoping' to do, espesh with 3K blinds and decent antes. There is one shorter stack at my table.. and he is the one 'making the move'

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4. Calling and winning won't help your case as much as you'd like. In this case you are going to kill your image, AND you will still be short-handed where you'd really like to have a tighter image.


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My image was tight, as was everyone else's by this point. All stealing our share of the blinds and only calling with v good hands. Complete luckfest.
By calling here:
a) I can show I am willing to gamble, thus preventing other folks from making a move at me with any2, so when they do try to get my blinds I will give them credit. I had been tight to this point, and by showing a bold call (if correct) people will not want to mess with me, espesh once I get back above 20K chips. I had lost about 20K earlier with AK vs KK, and my other showdowns had been premium. I dont believe they would 'suddenly' take me for a loose donk, they might in fact steal my blinds less and possible respect me more

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5. You are deep enough that you still have FE.


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Barely. I'm going to have to 'make a move' soon, with or without cards