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#243
10-20-2005, 08:54 AM
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Re: Week 7, post 1
[ QUOTE ]
can you start posting each weeks picks in a new thread? going thru and looking at each post is a pain. post a link to past weeks picks in the new thread. this would be much easier, and i'd be much more inclined to read your picks. [/ QUOTE ] When I click on the link to this thread, it takes me to the first post that I hadn't read. Its not a problem at all for me. 
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#244
10-20-2005, 04:57 PM
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Re: Week 7, post 5 (ii)
Matchbook cancelled my wager at -103 due to the game's date change. I picked up -2 again at -101. The bet is therefore now:
Miami Dolphins -2 -101 $101.00 to win $100.00 10/20/05 Note remains the same.
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#245
10-20-2005, 05:29 PM
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Week 7, post 6
Indianapolis/Houston over 45 +101.9
$98.14 to win $100.00 10/20/05 Note: +101 is the lowest number to play for a 2 unit bet on over 45. -117 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet. Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks
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#247
10-20-2005, 05:57 PM
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Re: Week 7, post 4
Just to reiterate, 5 unit bets aren't locks, they're simply very highly rated. Historically, I think they've lost in the range of 30-35% of the time. Risk diversification is still king in NFL wagering.
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#248
10-20-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: Week 7, post 4
what kind of odds would do you need to get for it to be +EV to bet the moneyline on a 15 pt dog
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#249
10-20-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: Week 7, post 4
You're treading into difficult territory because the sample of 14.5+ games is pretty small. What I can tell you is large underdogs at home (7.5+) have a far better chance of winning outright than road dogs getting the same amount of points. My initial research into NBA spread trends indicates the same.
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