AA 60 hand

[drbk2]

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Have you considered that AA is no good?

Why are you raising the turn where you are quite likely behind? to get re-raised? I mean. You put them on 78 or A8 or a pocket?

What about 88, 77, 65? Flush?


If it's 65, 88 or 77, you're drawing to 2 outs.

if it's a flush, you're drawing to um, 13 - 6 = 7 outs. You can take out the 7 or 8 as an out, so 6 outs.


What are you trying to chase out on the turn that's going to fold and what are the chances you're drawing dead or slim?

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You aren't counting outs very well if he's up against a flush. Not sure why you are discounting a 7 or 8, but you are also overlooking two 5s and 2 As. He has 10 or 11 outs, and by raising the turn, he may get a hand like 99 or A6 to fold which would be very good for him.

And, gabe, I have to disagree. The BB may well have a JJ or QQ, not threebet it preflop, then use the flop as a perfect opportunity to force out a presumed AQ/AK type of hand.

Mike, I prolly raise the river. I think BB put you on a flush and is betting his fullhouse. You can't count on any overcalls. I don't see how BB can be only calling your turn raise with a boat, given that SB's already put in two bets and will likely put in a third with a hand that is drawing (and drawing dead).

Raise the river (and, yes, pay off a 3rd bet)

Josh

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Josh this will sounds results oriented since Mike posted the results, but raising the river is still really bad, it's not close. I think you are a very solid player from the times we have played together, but even thinking that JJ/QQ is a feasible hand for the BB after the flop action so nuts, i am telling you, people just don't not 3 bet those into a field preflop and then put in as many bets on the flop and turn as this guy did.

Look at it this way, they dude didn't repop the the turn with 85 because he thought he was behind! That should show you how often he has JJ/QQ here and plays it this strongs (NEVER!) We are not ahead very often on the river IMO, and the fact that there is another player who we can lure into calling with a hand that is definitly worse than ours but will basically never cold call 2 makes this even easier. Raising the river is really bad. Anyone who thinks otherwise is wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

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Hmmm, I still really disagree. Now, of course, we know that THIS PARTICULAR opponent wouldn't play JJ this way. But we certainly don't know that from mike's initial discription of him (good, semi laggy).

I mean, how would you play TT here? Laggy raises UTG. Couple cold callers, SB calls....you wouldn't threebet here would you? If so, I think that's a mistake....you'll make the pot so huge that any overcard will be tied to the pot, and you are going to need a set to win, getting like 4:1.

So you call with TT (JJ is closer, QQ should reraise, I think). Flop comes 8 high, and you lead out with your overpair knowing that the lagtard UTG will raise any two (note...I'm not saying mike's a lagtard or that he'd raise any two, but that his image is that he'd likely do so).

So lagtard raises, and there's one cold caller. wouldn't you threebet here?

I could also see the BB play 86 or 89 this way. And, heck, maybe 66 if he puts mike on something like AQs00ted.

Ultimately, mike raised the turn when a flush got there, and his opponent froze. Now, an obvious boat comes, and his opponent wakes up again. I'm saying that evidence makes me think he has a boat. Or, more accuately, I think that it makes a boat his MOST LIKELY holding. And, hey...mike has a way above avg boat!

Josh

man...i can't see not raising the river. the villain (BB) is laggy. no way he doesn't reraise a boat on the turn. only hand we have to fear is 65, and that seems farfetched.

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I actually thought 65 was his most likely holding. He caps the flop with his pair/straight draw, calls the sb's bet on the turn when he makes trip 5's since he fears the flush, and bets the river with quads, hoping to get raised by mike's overpair, and cold called by small blind's flush and then he can 3 bet the river.

Could the BB play TT JJ QQ this way? I suppose so, but I don't think a good player really would. With a board like that in a four way pot, i really think he would wait to see what comes on the turn. I think him putting the 4th bet in on the flop shows that he doesn't have an overpair. He either has set, two pair, or a huge draw. And I don't think he would bet into mike with any of those hands on the river.

[ggbman]

Well preflop we just play differently i guess, i jerk off while i repop QQ. JJ is a easy RR for me, and TT i would riase against lagish players like Mike, bu not against a much more taggish player.

Ulatimatley in poker, you need to give the most weight to someone's last action, regardless of how inconsistent you think it might be with the rest. Here, Mike is repped a big pair the entire way. There is no way the blind thinks his most likely hand is a flush. And yet he bets that river card. That is pretty much always the nuts or close to it.

[rory]

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Well preflop we just play differently i guess, i jerk off while i repop QQ.

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lol

[elindauer]

Given that both the SB and BB are aggressive, and both just called your turn raise, I have a hard time putting them on so much as trip 5s on the turn. Then again, it's pretty hard to put them on much of anything, at least for me.

I think you are ahead often enough that folding is out. Raise? Well, I do think you are quite often ahead, but calling to a) go for overcalls, and b) avoid being 3-bet the times you are up against a 5 in the BB, seems like the best play.

nh.

-eric

[elindauer]

I think his turn call closing the action can't possibly be correct. There are tons of drawing hands that will payoff now, and he's not nearly likely enough to induce excess action by playing this way. In fact, there are a number of river scare cards that will put him in the awkward position of no longer knowing if he can count on you to bet the river after he checks. Yuck.

-Eric

[elindauer]

Great point. River bet is quite poor as well. Nice explanation.

-Eric

[elindauer]

Josh, your logic for not 3-betting the TT is incorrect, IMO. The key mistake is your hand-waving away the odds of winning without a set to 0. Further, since you will often get to see several cards after bloating the pot, your odds of hitting a set are better than the 7.5:1 I imagine you are thinking in your head.

TT will hold up unimproved quite often against three players, all taking up each other's outs with overcards. You definitely have an equity edge and can easily raise for value preflop.

Not raising is a strategic move designed to extract more postflop by keeping the pot small(er), but personally, the pot is already so big that I don't see much of an edge here. I raise preflop in that position.

good luck.
-Eric

[ggbman]

Eric, i agree pretty much 100% with you there, the only possible expection being if UTG is very tight (say the equivalent of like an 18/12 or so online) because then you might not repop TT in this spot because you expose yourself to a cap. JJ+ however, is very easy, and with all the cold callers who hold smallers pairs 86o, repopping TT can never be bad here.

Of course, one of the big flaws in Josh's argument here is that he could play TT like this, he wouldn't overvalue a cammish overpair that much on this board, and the chance of him having a pair higher then TT is almost nil for the reasons that you and I have mentioned here.

[mike l.]

"Flop comes 8 high, and you lead out with your overpair knowing that the lagtard UTG will raise any two (note...I'm not saying mike's a lagtard or that he'd raise any two, but that his image is that he'd likely do so"

for the record that's definitely not my image lately most of the time in the commerce games ive been playing.

[mike l.]

"Could the BB play TT JJ QQ this way? I suppose so, but I don't think a good player really would."

the verdict came in that he's not a good player according to concensus on how he played this hand, and some other hands death donkey saw him play. my bad.