Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log - Page 23

sygamel · #**221** 10-14-2005, 02:35 PM

Cleveland Browns +6 -102
$51.00 to win $50.00
10/14/05

Note: -104 is the highest number to play for a bet at +6.

sygamel · #**222** 10-15-2005, 01:23 PM

Detroit Lions to win -106
$53.00 to win $50.00
10/15/05

Note: -107 is the highest number to play for a bet on this game.

sygamel · #**223** 10-16-2005, 10:12 AM

Dallas Cowboys -3 -106
$53.00 to win $50.00
10/16/05

Note: -106 is the highest number to play for a bet at -3.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

sygamel · #**224** 10-16-2005, 10:54 AM

Washington Redskins +6 -101
$50.50 to win $50.00
10/16/05

Note: -110 is the highest number to play for a bet at +6.

sygamel · #**225** 10-16-2005, 12:39 PM

New Orleans Saints +5.5 -101 and +6 -111
$101.00 to win $100.00 and $111.00 to win $100.00
10/16/05

Note: -108 is the highest number to play for a 4 unit bet at +5.5. -116 is the highest number to play for a 4 unit bet at +6. Play each with whichever combination you feel most comfortable. Play all higher numbers at 3 units.

dankhank · #**226** 10-16-2005, 01:00 PM

you could probably use more outs if the best you got was new orleans +6 -111. sublime's post about must-have books included a couple of square books (bodog, sportsinteraction) which had much better odds, up to an hour before you placed.

dankhank · #**227** 10-16-2005, 01:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you could probably use more outs if the best you got was new orleans +6 -111. sublime's post about must-have books included a couple of square books (bodog, sportsinteraction) which had much better odds, up to an hour before you placed.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh and if anyone wants a recommendation about bodog vs sportsinteraction, i think SI is much better since they get up their lines much quicker and thus have funky over/unders that bodog doesn't.

sygamel · #**228** 10-16-2005, 05:18 PM

Saint Louis/Indianapolis over 51 -110
$110.00 to win $100.00
10/16/05

Note: -111 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet on over 51. -130 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

sygamel · #**229** 10-17-2005, 09:03 AM

One game this week had a very large impact on the bottom line -- San Diego at Oakland.

Oakland to win +115

Three significant trends, two against San Diego and one for Oakland, as well as a smaller trend for Oakland pushed the favorability of a straight up Oakland win to above 60%. Based on a money line wager price of +115, Oakland to win was made a significant play with strong justification. San Diego enjoyed an above 35% likelihood of winning outright and did so.

Oakland teaser +8

Historically, home dogs of +1.5 to +3 are afforded a 46% coverability edge with a 6 point tease. For example, if a home underdog +2.5 has a 50% chance of covering the spread, it will enjoy a 73% likelihood of covering +8.5:

(100-50)% chance of non-cover with +2.5
46% x 50% = 23%
Home dog +8.5 = 50% + 23% = 73%

Another example:

Underdog +2.5 60% chance of cover
46% x (100-60)% = 18.4%
Home dog +8.5 = 60% + 18.4% = 78.4%

Oakland's coverability +8 exceeded 80%. However, San Diego still enjoyed a 15+% chance of covering -8 and to their credit, they did so. This will inevitably occur over the course of a season.

Such is the nature of probability forecasts -- rarely is any event a sure thing. Regardless, you increase your wagers when the time is right. Winning at NFL wagering involves the same principles as card-counting in blackjack and bidding up pots in poker: you load up when strong opportunities arise. Even if the analytic concepts that justify increased wagering are strong, frequently you lose; more often in the long-run, you win.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

sygamel · #**230** 10-19-2005, 08:12 AM

San Francisco 49ers to win +640
$7.81 to win $50.00
10/18/05

Note: +635 is the lowest number to play for a bet on this game.