Another Mansion free bet

[grando]

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Straight up, I don't have the balls to make this bet. And yes, I hate money.

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I haven't decided whether I'm hedging

[guppy]

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Straight up, I don't have the balls to make this bet. And yes, I hate money.

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Just how many balls does it take to risk $0 to win $1000????

[ImWeakTight@UCLA]

i dont c any were were it says -5 all i c is
Fri, 08 September, 2006 GMT10100:30 Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers
Points
+4.5 -110 -4.5 -110

[scorer]

guppy, there are no guarantees in life. This is not 100 percent no risk as you make it seem. I will prob do it myself, but the fact that your dealing with a company out of this country and not regulated in the usa is of some risk.

[smak]

So is every online poker site, casino, and sportsbook.

We risk every cent we put into pokerstars or partypoker then too.

The 4.5 is much better.

A 5 point difference in a game is pretty unlikely, but there's a few normal ways it can be done.

4 TD'S vs 3 FG's and 2 TD's 28 - 23
4 TD's and 1 FG vs 2 TD's and 4 FG's 31-26

So far this spring there has been 1 5 point game out of the dozens.

-smak-

[Heppet]

HOW can this NOT be too good to be true? Is www.mansion.com a big and respected sportsbookie?

[MicroBob]

geez, go back and read the thread already.

[108]

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FYI, I just updated the bet and hedge guide at http://www.bet2k.com/mansionhedge.html to reflect the new odds offered at mansion at 4.5.

Thanks to everyone who has posted the guide link on other boards. I appreciate the hits and am glad you find it useful [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Halo7

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Thanks again. I got my money in on Mansion when it was at -5. Does this mean I *must* pay to get the Dolphins at +5.5 at Pinnacle for it to be a true hedge? Is this simply because there are no half points in NFL and neither bet will be a push? Does this mean I could pay the cheaper +4.5 line for the Dolphins?

I'm a SSNL donk and this is all new to me.

Using your logic on your site, if I pay for +5.5 for the Dolphins at Pinnacle (currently at 1.833) this means;

* If Steelers win by 5 or more, I get $1000 from Mansion, and lost (1000/1.833) $545.55 at Pinnacle for a profit of $454.45
* If Dolphins win, (or Steelers win by less than 5), I get $1000 from Pinnacle for the same profit of $454.45

* If they draw, what happens? I get both bets back?

* What if Dolphins win by less than 5.5? Is this even relevant? Or do I win the Pinnacle bet if the Dolphins win *at all*?

How does this change if I use the cheaper +4.5 bet for the Dolphins? A previous poster mentioned that this could be bad and I could lose in certain situations.

I've rambled a bit, but basically, what line do I need to take at Pinnacle if I've got the Steelers at Mansion for -5?

[alvaroaze]

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Thanks again. I got my money in on Mansion when it was at -5. Does this mean I *must* pay to get the Dolphins at +5.5 at Pinnacle for it to be a true hedge? Is this simply because there are no half points in NFL and neither bet will be a push?

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Yes.

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Does this mean I could pay the cheaper +4.5 line for the Dolphins?

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No
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* If Steelers win by 5 or more, I get $1000 from Mansion, and lost (1000/1.833) $545.55 at Pinnacle for a profit of $454.45

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No, if the steelers win by exaclty 5 you push the Mansion bet, getting only the $1100 back. But then you win the Pinnacle bet, if you picked +5.5.

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* If they draw, what happens? I get both bets back?

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No, a draw would lose the Mansion bet and win the Pinnacle bet.

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* What if Dolphins win by less than 5.5? Is this even relevant? Or do I win the Pinnacle bet if the Dolphins win *at all*?

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Not relevant. You win the bet if the Dolphins win, if the game ties or if Pitt wins by 5 or less.

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How does this change if I use the cheaper +4.5 bet for the Dolphins? A previous poster mentioned that this could be bad and I could lose in certain situations.

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With +4.5 you get screwed if Pitt wins by exaclty 5. If this happens, you tie the Mansion bet, getting $1100 back, but you lose the Pinnacle bet, losing ~$500.

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I've rambled a bit, but basically, what line do I need to take at Pinnacle if I've got the Steelers at Mansion for -5?

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You can take Dolphins +5 if you dont mind winning $0 if Pitt wins by exaclty 5 points, which happens very rarely. If you want to guarantee a profit, take the +5.5 line.

[108]

Thanks for your help.

I'm helping fund a friend's account for this as well, but haven't yet placed the bet on Mansion. It looks like the Pittsburgh line will be -4, so in this case, I just follow the instructions here http://bet2k.com/mansionhedge.html and bet the +4.5 line for the Dolphins. Sweet.

Finally, how can we reconcile the incompatibilities between quantum theory and general relativity? Any help on this would be appreciated.