This hand is a common problem - 1000 outs on turn vs donkey

DrewOnTilt · #1 08-29-2006, 12:42 AM

Villain in this hand is a loosey goosey and goes to showdown too much. He is 50/19/41 WTSD/0.76 AF

I run into this problem constantly. I have nine million outs on the turn against someone who can't find the fold button. I bet for value here, or so I thought. How's my turn line?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (6.83 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.83 BB

jay b. · #2 08-29-2006, 12:48 AM

I am checking this turn alot depending on his river bluff frequency after turn checks (I don't read PT#s well if this is already clear)

The Bryce · #3 08-29-2006, 01:15 AM

Betting the turn is silly. You are behind his range and it's quite unlikely that he will fold a better hand if you bet. AK AQ AJ aren't going anywhere, and AT A9 are paired. If the river blanks and you stove a reasonable range for a 19PFR UTG you get about 22% equity, so you would need him to bet a worse hand about 70% of the time into what should like like a flagrant ace high.

wackjob · #4 08-29-2006, 02:08 AM

This is a great spot for a turn check. I do it in this situation almost always. With this donkey he will never fold a hand that has you beat. However, when you check the turn then make your big hand on the river you can raise the river. Otherwise, you can make the good fold when you miss.

cartman · #5 08-29-2006, 02:11 AM

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Otherwise, you can make the good fold when you miss.

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In my opinion their aren't many, if any, good river folds if you check behind in this hand.

wackjob · #6 08-29-2006, 02:13 AM

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In my opinion their aren't many, if any, good river folds if you check behind in this hand.

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I was not talking about the way this specific hand played out, but in general if he checks here and still has KQhi on the river and the donkey bets, he can make a good fold. Obviously if he hits any of his draws or pairs he will either raise or call. Calling with KQhi on this river would be assinine.

cartman · #7 08-29-2006, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling with KQhi on this river would be assinine.

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Then I am Captain Assinine.

dave44 · #8 08-29-2006, 10:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling with KQhi on this river would be assinine.

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Then I am Captain Assinine.

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Given the board on the turn and the range of hands you could have with the action that has occured, if you are calling a river bet on a blank with KQ, are there any hands you could have that you are folding to a river bet? Are we deeming our opponent to dumb to notice we are never folding?

Hoi Polloi · #9 08-29-2006, 10:30 AM

I agree. What is the turn meant to accomplish. Tactically, Bryce is right--you're not folding villain's range--and you don't care about a free SD because you're going to bet if you make your stronger hands and lose if you don't. Value, well you're behind so there's no value bet here.

Check behind is best, IMO.

Hoi Polloi · #10 08-29-2006, 11:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have nine million outs on the turn against someone who can't find the fold button.

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You got 12 untainted outs (9 diamonds and 3 non-diamond gutters). OCs are tainted as are straights. Let's say you got 3 outs there (villain has AK or AQ) giving you 15 outs. Making it 2+:1 against you. So, the turn bet is not for value.

I tend to follow the maxim that says you can check hands with outs and must bet made hands without outs. Effective odds consideration, IMO.