Week 1 CFB Notions

[pirateboy]

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I haven't really put a whole lot of thought into this week's lines yet as I usually base most of my analysis on watching the teams play, and I don't bet very heavy the first couple weeks of the season. I haven't placed any bets yet either as I'm waiting for a Neteller transfer to go through.

With that said, the one line that really jumps out at me is Texas -41. In Texas, you have a team that consistently blows out weak opponents year in and year out, going against a North Texas team that consistently gets blown out in non-conference games and is now way down from years past, looking like one of the weakest teams in the Sun Belt.

Factor in that Mack Brown's going to want to get both QBs work and will be passing late into the second half, and I think this line would have value at -50. Seriously, I can't imagine the Horns scoring less than 60 in this game or UNT scoring more than 7.

One other thing I wanted to mention is the Kentucky/Louisville game. Why do people like Kentucky here? Louisville always blows people out at Papa John's, and they look to have the most talented team in Petrino's tenure. They tend to let down in mid-season road games, but in a home opener against a rival, I'd expect them to win by at least 4 TDs. -22.5 sounds like a bargain to me.

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I don't like either team at 22'. I think that line is very close to what is going to happen. Obv the half won't happen, but you know what I mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bills217]

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One other thing I wanted to mention is the Kentucky/Louisville game. Why do people like Kentucky here? Louisville always blows people out at Papa John's, and they look to have the most talented team in Petrino's tenure. They tend to let down in mid-season road games, but in a home opener against a rival, I'd expect them to win by at least 4 TDs. -22.5 sounds like a bargain to me.

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Louisville always blows out CUSA/Big East cupcakes at Papa John's, but for the Kentucky game the stadium will be at least half blue, so their homefield advantage will be largely negated (it's only a 42k seat stadium anyway - not like noise is a huge factor to begin w/).

Kentucky is returning most of their key players and should have their best team in 4 years, albeit that doesn't say much, and if Andre Woodson held onto the ball last year at the goal-line, Kentucky's woeful 3-8 squad likely would've beaten the 10-2 or whatever Cardinals.

Kentucky's biggest problems the last few years have been injuries and lack of depth from probation, but injuries won't be a problem for this game, and they've had 2 full recruiting classes since being off probation, so they have more scholarship players now than they've had in several years. Rafael Little, Tony Dixon, and Keenan Burton are big-time playmakers on offense, and Andre Woodson is a solid veteran QB. Defensively the front 7 will be very good and deep, secondary not so much.

U of L, while sporting perhaps the best offense in the country, probably will not be much better on defense than Kentucky. Brohm is coming off a torn ACL, and as with any such injury it is a little uncertain how he will react, and frankly I think he's pretty overrated to begin with. If Kentucky will bring guys up in the box to contain Bush and make Brohm beat them, I think they could potentially win this game. (I'm not sure they'll do that tho; Archer has been in love w/ playing these soft zones which I like to call the "blitz-none cover-none"...hopefully he'll come up w/ a better game-plan now that he has some better personnel.)

The line opened a couple weeks ago at 25, and I almost jumped on Kentucky there, but didn't because I wanted to make sure that the veteran Woodson is going to start at QB over the sophomore Pulley, and didn't anticipate such a drastic line move. I think Rich Brooks is staging a little faux QB controversy; Woodson is a good decision maker and accurate passer, but has a little bit of a fumbling problem, and all spring and summer Brooks has been talking up Pulley, who's more of a Marcus Vick-type running QB. Here it is less than a week before the game and he still hasn't named a starter; my take is you can expect to see Woodson taking almost all the snaps at QB against U of L, w/ Pulley taking an occasional snap at QB and seeing some time at WR. Brooks did the exact same thing when he had Lorenzen and Boyd in his first year; he's just not tipping his hand so U of L will have to be prepared for both styles, which is good from a strategic standpoint.

If that thought had occurred to me earlier I'd have hopped on UK at 25 and got a huge middle two weeks later w/ U of L -21.5, but oh well. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


Cliff notes: U of L is a strong favorite, but 22.5 is too much, and 25 was WAY too much, as indicated by the line movement.

[MCS]

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I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

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Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).

Where can you get FSU +4.5?

[NajdorfDefense]

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I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

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Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).
Where can you get FSU +4.5?

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Absolutely nowhere.

[MCS]

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I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

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Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).
Where can you get FSU +4.5?

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Absolutely nowhere.

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That's what I figured, but pirateboy has it listed...

[Pressure]

I just teased USC and San Jose St. on bodog. Getting -2 and +24.5 respectively. I think it's sweet, I feel like San Jose St. just has to manage not to get blown away by a horrible Washington team and I win good cash.

Maybe I'm naive, since its my first time betting. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[pirateboy]

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I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

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Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).
Where can you get FSU +4.5?

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Absolutely nowhere.

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That's what I figured, but pirateboy has it listed...

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Didn't UM open at -4? I must've gotten my wires crossed. I remember seeing UM -3', which I like a lot. Sorry about that, I guess I imagined the 4'.

[iggymcfly]

Just for the record, here are all of Louisville's home results over the last two years:

Kentucky W 28-0
East Carolina W 59-7
South Florida W 41-9
TCU W 55-28
Cincinnatti W 70-7
Oregon State W 63-27
Florida Atlantic W 61-10
North Carolina W 69-14
Pittsburgh W 42-20
Rutgers W 56-5
Syracuse W 41-17

See, it's not just Big East opponents they've been beating up on. Pretty much everyone that comes into Papa John's gets hammered. When a 22 point win over Pitt (in which they did cover, I remember betting it) is their closest home win in the last two years, I think a 22.5 point spread is pretty good.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Just for the record, here are all of Louisville's home results over the last two years:

Kentucky W 28-0
East Carolina W 59-7
Oregon State W 63-27
North Carolina W 69-14
Pittsburgh W 42-20
Rutgers W 56-5
Syracuse W 41-17

See, it's not just Big East opponents they've been beating up on. Pretty much everyone that comes into Papa John's gets hammered. When a 22 point win over Pitt (in which they did cover, I remember betting it) is their closest home win in the last two years, I think a 22.5 point spread is pretty good.

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Both UNC and OSU were horrendous last year.

[pirateboy]

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Just for the record, here are all of Louisville's home results over the last two years:

Kentucky W 28-0
East Carolina W 59-7
Oregon State W 63-27
North Carolina W 69-14
Pittsburgh W 42-20
Rutgers W 56-5
Syracuse W 41-17

See, it's not just Big East opponents they've been beating up on. Pretty much everyone that comes into Papa John's gets hammered. When a 22 point win over Pitt (in which they did cover, I remember betting it) is their closest home win in the last two years, I think a 22.5 point spread is pretty good.

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Both UNC and OSU were horrendous last year.

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And Kentucky will be leaps and bounds better in 2006 than in 2005. Kentucky is a sleeper for a bowl game, and Rafael Little is one of the most underrated players in the country. I feel this game will be way too close to 22 to really NEED to bet on it. I don't know if this is a pretty common thought, but in games like UL-UK, a point move in the line doesn't entice me personally.