Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log - Page 19

sygamel · #**181** 10-11-2005, 09:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I'm done with this discussion. Lets just say I have no doubt that I'm right.

[/ QUOTE ]

And on that note, let's all pop a couple aspirin.

sublime · #**182** 10-11-2005, 09:57 PM

Just as an example, if you have a team that abnormally will cover 12 (vs. 6) points more than what is expected in general, then it may be more +EV to teas that team vs playing them straight up at +6. I don't know if your system generates this type of analysis, but certainly its feasible.

No, its not. For a few reasons:

A) The way scoring is done in the NFL. After you cross the 3/7, the chances of a game landing on a particular # drop considerably. Making your theroy basically mathmatically impossible.

B) No handicapper (well a winning one) is that enamored with himself enough to think that he can predict the scores of games within 6 points (again, unless the line is in the 3/7 area)

Anyway, I'm done with this discussion. Lets just say I have no doubt that I'm right.

Funny, I was goign to say the SAME exact thing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

sygamel · #**183** 10-11-2005, 10:05 PM

Quite honestly the single conclusion I'm coming to is open teasers are the only way to go. Closed, even $ teasers are awfully nice but they still force you into the unfavorable situation of picking teaser -EV games.

sygamel · #**184** 10-12-2005, 10:55 AM

Miami/Tampa Bay over 33.5 -111.1
$166.69 to win $150.00
10/11/05

Note: -105 is the highest number to play for a 3 unit bet on over 33.5. -120 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet.

FYI The line appears to have changed in the 20 minutes since I've made the bet.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

sygamel · #**185** 10-12-2005, 05:33 PM

Miami Dolphins +4 -102
$51.00 to win $50.00
10/12/05

Note: -107 is the highest number to play for a bet at +4.

sygamel · #**186** 10-13-2005, 09:31 AM

Since this line has shot through the ceiling in the last 24 hours (usually a good sign as sharp bettors move totals whereas unsavvy bettors generally move pointspreads), I'm going to change the wager requirements to the following:

Mia/TB ov 35 -- +104 is the lowest number to play for a 3 unit bet. -110 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet. -129 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

sygamel · #**187** 10-13-2005, 12:38 PM

Houston Texans +10 -120
$120.00 to win $100.00
10/13/05

Note: -110 is the highest number to play for a 3 unit bet at +10. -127 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet. -150 is the hiest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

FYI This line is moving quickly downward.

sygamel · #**188** 10-13-2005, 06:20 PM

Houston Texans to win +373
$13.40 to win $50.00
10/13/05

Note: +365 is the lowest number to play for a bet on this game.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

sublime · #**189** 10-13-2005, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since this line has shot through the ceiling in the last 24 hours (usually a good sign as sharp bettors move totals whereas unsavvy bettors generally move pointspreads), I'm going to change the wager requirements to the following:

Mia/TB ov 35 -- +104 is the lowest number to play for a 3 unit bet. -110 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet. -129 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

ov 35 -110 is a losing proposition

34 is a key number in regards to totals. you had a great bet in over 33.5, dont ruin it by putting more money on a bad number.

sygamel · #**190** 10-13-2005, 06:36 PM

I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)).