*Official* HSP 8/14

[Nielsio]

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I thought it was impressive for him to know Doyle had kings-full, but then I didn't understand how he said he might have paid him off if a 2 hit.


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DN pretty much just names the nuts and then either calls or folds based on his own hand. Watch him - "I think you have [the nuts], oh well, I call (with top pair)", or "I think you have [the nuts], but I missed, so I fold".

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Yeah, it's a variation on: put him on a hand you beat and raise --> put him on a hand that beats you and call anyway.

[satelliter]

2 strong players capable of playing anything and making big moves. After check/raise chances of Gus having 55, 99, (or 88 -very remote) versus 95, 65, 78 or a bluff I would put at 50-50. The call was 167 into a pot of 408, so the odds were there. In hindsight, a reraise on the flop would have probably gotten a call, indicating a likely set (both afraid of a flopped straight) but who here wouldn't have taken the free card?

Doyle's play was superb, and the results show. So what if Antonio bluffed him out of a medium pot.

[ravenfan1733]

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It sounds to me like you are saying calling re-raises with 4 high and calling pot size bets on the flop with bottom pair is +EV.

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When that call is against an opponent with an incredibly high continuation bet %, whose vast majority of his range is going to be scared crapless by an in position $35K call on a drawless king high flop, and you're both extremely deepstacked, with a deceptive pair and two backdoor draws, yes it can be quite +EV.

What do you think Doyle does on the turn with anything less than AK?

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OK, I think I understand what you are saying. Call ANY raise on the button with ANY 2 cards, CALL any bet on the flop and when/if the guy checks the turn, BET at least 1/2 the pot and take it down.

I didn't realize it was that easy. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[SenorBeef]

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So isn't it possible that Gus may have thought, "If I c/r all in, Daniel will put me on exactly 99 or 55 and fold anything less than that"?


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Yes, this is a point I meant to make but forgot to.

The fact that you guys say "he'd never make that raise without the first or second nuts" is exactly why, to a great player with some balls, that situation becomes a viable bluff.

[CharlieDontSurf]

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To say it's an "easy fold" is either some ridiculously tight-weak poker, or ego-driven results-based thinking.

Daniel was trying to represent an overpair - everything he did in the hand was consistent with that. If he did think that he (Daniel) successfully planted the idea in Hansen's mind, then he would expect Hansen to be very aggressive with a wide range of hands. If he has nothing, he might be able to scare off Daniel's overpair on the kind of board that hits the sort of hands Gus will play. If he has a strong, but second best hand like 59, then he'll try to get value against an overpair.

Either way, the way Daniel acted throughout the hand was designed to encourage action - and so when he actually gets action, he's not going to take it as a conclusive sign that he's beat. Both of them know Gus' image, and Daniel could've made Gus think that Daniel thought he was calling off a bluff raise and bet on the turn with a medium strength hand like an overpair. And if Daniel thinks that's what Gus is thinking, then Daniel's actions are a natural conclusion to that, based on what Daniel thinks Gus is thinking.

You say Gus couldn't have played that way without a hand that beat Daniel, but that's nonsense. Gus certainly doesn't come from that weak-tight camp, so you can't base Daniel's analysis of his action based on that. Gus could've had a range of hands there that Daniel beat, and Daniel is getting like 2:1 on it. Still, it's not like Daniel is pot-committed at that point, so a bluff is still a viable option.


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This is the best analysis of the hand. This was poker at its absolute best, and the river check by Gus was brilliant.

The river check was the key to the payoff. DN thought that Gus put DN on an overpair with the river C/R, which was part of DN's plan through the whole hand. DN said as much in his blog. DN verbalizes the possible hands that beat him before he calls, but I think this was just to let everyone know that he was considering all the possibilities before he called with his boat, thinking that he had trapped Gus into thinking that he (DN) sold Gus that his (DN's) hand was simply an overpair.

This is 4th or 5th level thinking, and maybe more, and Gus went one level deeper in the analysis. Like others have said, I would really like to hear how Gus analyzed this hand as it rolled out. Gus's giant brain was one step ahead of DN at the end, and the river check was superior poker.

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This line of thinking supports the vibe I got from DN when he alerted Doyle and Eli to the big pot he wa about to call. He did it in a confident/cocky type way...not in a "oh man such a tough call"
when he was running through the hands that beat him he didn't seem terribly concerned just that if it was one of those he was being cold decked big time and there was nothing he could do about it. I really got the vibe from DN that he thought his "plan" had worked...and he was about to get seriously payed off

[Death Valley]

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OK, I think I understand what you are saying. Call ANY raise on the button with ANY 2 cards, CALL any bet on the flop and when/if the guy checks the turn, BET at least 1/2 the pot and take it down.

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The more experienced u get at NL, the more you will understand how standard it is [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ravenfan1733]

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OK, I think I understand what you are saying. Call ANY raise on the button with ANY 2 cards, CALL any bet on the flop and when/if the guy checks the turn, BET at least 1/2 the pot and take it down.

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The more experienced u get at NL, the more you will understand how standard it is [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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You keep calling PF re-raises and pot-size CB with 4 high - in position, of course - and I'll take my $43K cash from the WSOP ME and get some poker lessons. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Isura]

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I don't know if you are joking, but against anyone else (with similar stack sizes) I think Daniel makes this laydown pretty easily.

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No. Daniel isn't able to laydown big hands in this game (the deeb hand in season 1 comes to mind).

[rsigley]

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I don't know if you are joking, but against anyone else (with similar stack sizes) I think Daniel makes this laydown pretty easily.

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No. Daniel isn't able to laydown big hands in this game (the deeb hand in season 1 comes to mind).

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didn't he lay down the nut flush to todd brunsons bluff?

[Rottersod]

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Daniel was trying to represent an overpair - everything he did in the hand was consistent with that.

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Except for betting the river; what overpair bets that river?
Likewise, Gus isn't check-raising the trip 5s or the straight on the river, and he's probably betting a lot more than 24k on the turn with trip 5s.

Now, whether or not anyone could make that fold in the heat of battle is a different question, but when Daniel makes the large river bet Gus almost certainly has 99 or 55 to c-r all in.

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This is a very good post. DN did play that hand exactly like he had an overpair except for the river. He should have asked himself why Gus would then be check raising. Unfortunately for Daniel there was too much money in that pot for him to seriously consider folding at that point but he knew he was going to be beat. You could see it by the way he put his chips in.