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#151
10-11-2005, 07:06 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
I still dont agree.
If NO is that strong, then put more on them on the best line you can find. Oakland teased is a good leg, NO teased is a bad leg. Your losing the value of Oakland, by betting NO up over low valued numbers. A much better canidate would be Carolina. 
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#152
10-11-2005, 07:13 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
[ QUOTE ]
If NO is that strong, then put more on them on the best line you can find. [/ QUOTE ] I will be. [ QUOTE ] Oakland teased is a good leg, NO teased is a bad leg. Your losing the value of Oakland, by betting NO up over low valued numbers. [/ QUOTE ] The problem with these pesky teasers of course is you have to bet two games. Incidentally, I don't like Carolina this week.
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#153
10-11-2005, 07:26 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
The problem with these pesky teasers of course is you have to bet two games.
Yes, but you dont have to make one of them a team that shouldnt be in the teaser. I also think the Tenn teaser is not good. You can get +3 -112 at pinny right now which is MUCH better than the teaser you have them locked into. The only time you want to tease a team that already has the 3, is when the juice is high (-120) and the total is low. You thenm want to do a 7.5 point teaser and gain the 10. I dont want it to seem like I am picking apart your betting, but I am pretty sure you could increse your profit by looking over the strategies you are employing with these teasers.
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#154
10-11-2005, 07:36 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
The real question here is...who would be your second team? Name it/them and I will tell you the chance I've computed for them to cover a tease. I will then list the numbers I have for Tenn and NO covering their teases. In my calculations, the numbers for the former won't exceed the #s for the latter two.
I am playing all 3 of NO/Oak/Tenn in money line or ATS bets so don't worry that I'm not accessing the advantage I believe they take into their games this week. The real issue is picking a 2nd team to complement Oakland, no?
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#155
10-11-2005, 07:45 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
Let me put it another way to explain my thinking. Let's say I project Team A getting 4.5 points will cover 64% of the time. I project Team B getting 2.5 points to cover 50% of the time. Let's further assume a 6 point tease offers Team A 11% more cover ability, while Team B is afforded a 22% advantage by 6 points. Why would you insist on taking Team B when you're required to pick one of these two teams to complete a 2-(ed: game) teaser?
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#156
10-11-2005, 07:49 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
The real question here is...who would be your second team? Name it/them and I will tell you the chance I've computed for them to covering a tease. I will then list the numbers I have for Tenn and NO covering their teases. In my calculations, the numbers for the former won't exceed the #s for the latter two. You are overestimating your abilty to 'score' a game and underestimating the importance of key #'s. I am not arguing your handicapping, just the way you are implementing it. Teasers are largely a sucker bet. We gain an advatage with them by sticking to strict guidelines. By stepping out of those guildelines with one team, just so anthoer team meets the teaser conditions defates the purpose.
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#157
10-11-2005, 07:52 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
[ QUOTE ]
You are overestimating your abilty to 'score' a game [/ QUOTE ] lol That's certainly possible. [ QUOTE ] and underestimating the importance of key #'s. [/ QUOTE ] Absolutely not. Read my very last post.
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#159
10-11-2005, 08:02 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
Why would you insist on taking Team B when you're required to pick one of these two teams to complete a 2-(ed: game) teaser?
Now that you got %'s and stuff I am losing interest. I get headaches when I think too hard [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] If you liek oakland teased to +8 but dont like the other basic strategy teaser canidates that much (say there are two them, for sake of argument) the do soemthing like this Oak/Team A Oak/Team B Assing how much you want to bet on Oak (say 1 unit) and divide that unit by how many teasers they are in. SO you have half a unit on Oak twice and 1/2 unit on basic strategy teams once. The power of the 3 and 7 on even a team you dont like is more powerfull than wortless numbers on teams you DO like. I am auite certain of that. Or you can open tease them until you find a team (basic stratey) you do like [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#160
10-11-2005, 08:11 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 5
[ QUOTE ]
NO is so highly rated a game ..... because each week, my system tells me to fade the Falcons more than the previous week. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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