Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log

[sygamel]

I don't see the Saints line crossing to 7.5, enabling a useful +13.5. The best you'll be able to get as a tease is 12.5 or 13 which is really not much better than 10.5.

Ed: Plus you never know what'll happen with the Titans line. It's already leaning toward 2.5 and is unplayable as a teaser at +1 (+7).

[Levarkin]

I've noticed that you like "non-traditional" teasers, if traditional is teasing the 3 and 7. There have been three or so 3-to-9 or 3.5-to-9.5 teases in the last two weeks, as I recall.

I shy away from those, usually, as I'm not convinced of the value, but perhaps I'm missing something. My benchmark is that I'm looking for a 20% improvement in the probability of winning for the 6-point tease to be worthwhile. Is that what you look for too? Is the difference in probability between Cinci winning by 3 and Cinci winning by 9 really that substantial? You consider the one-TD victory to be a serious threat, then?

[sygamel]

Please disregard! I am going to load up on NO/Oak and Tenn/Oak teasers instead.

New Orleans Saints +10.5/Oakland Raiders +8 +100
$100.00 to win $100.00
10/11/05

Tennessee Titans +9/Oakland Raiders +8 +100
$100 to win $100.00
10/11/05

Note: Both teasers are playable at 2 units for either -110 or +100.

In summary, the NO/Tenn teaser is not bettable this week and won't go into my log. If you have already played it, try to make a 6/1 pleaser bet on Cinci -9/Atl -10.5 for $16.67 to hedge the teaser (this is what I did). I like both plays but the previous format would've created far too much exposure for those two games.

[sygamel]

I like teasing home teams getting 1.5 to 3 (and just some of them). I teased New Orleans because I have them very highly rated this week and can see them covering 4.5 on their own. Capturing the 5, 6, 7 and 10 help nicely though and provide added value. I actually can't remember the last time I teased any team getting between 4 and 7.5

[Levarkin]

Did you mean "I am going to load up on NO/Oak and Tenn/Oak teasers instead"?

[sygamel]

Yes, thanks for the correction.

[sygamel]

Oakland Raiders to win +115.3
$173.46 to win $200.00
10/11/05

Note: +114 is the lowest number to play for a 4 unit bet on this game. +101 is the lowest number to play for a 3 unit bet.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

[sygamel]

Jacksonville Jaguars to win +132
$37.88 to win $50.00
10/11/05

Note: +130 is the lowest number to play for a bet on this game.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
I like teasing home teams getting 1.5 to 3 (and just some of them). I teased New Orleans because I have them very highly rated this week and can see them covering 4.5 on their own. Capturing the 5, 6, 7 and 10 help nicely though and provide added value. I actually can't remember the last time I teased any team getting between 4 and 7.5

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont like the NO tease. Your not getting ANY of the 3 (sometimes just the 1/2 off the 3 can be good) and the value of the 7 and 10 is not that high with the total being normal.

I would just moniter the money and look for a good number later in the week.

[sygamel]

The reason I'm doing it sublime is because it's my highest rated game of the season ATS. On the other hand, I like Oak +8 better than NO +10.5 even though I like NO 8% better than Oak ATS. And as an experienced bettor yourself, the reason is obvious -- getting the 3 with Oak where 3 was "already gotten" with NO +4.5. Hope you understand my thinking here -- NO is so highly rated a game that teasing it with Oakland has real value. Oakland is still the real powerhouse of the play between the 2 as a tease.

As I posted earlier, I barely remember taking any dog 4 to 7.5 in a teaser before. NO is just that type of game this week.

Ed: Actually I have NO +4.5 covering 2% more often than Oak +8, but I project Oakland +8 to win 82% of the time, NO +10.5 77%. 77%x82%=~63% cover. Like I said, teasing any dog above 3 is rare but this circumstance called for IMO.