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#31
08-07-2006, 02:04 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
ok i just made some bets.
100 on eric lynch final table at +700 200 (accidental) on eric lynch to win at +3300 50 on prahlad to win at +2500 the stakes kinda suck on bet365 as compared to that other site linked. 
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#32
08-07-2006, 02:05 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
eric is also 33:1 against to win....I think bet365 is just going by chip equity and not realizing how much of a skill advantage someone like rizen has with a decent stack.
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#33
08-07-2006, 02:06 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
ok i just made some bets. 100 on eric lynch final table at +700 200 (accidental) on eric lynch to win at +3300 50 on prahlad to win at +2500 the stakes kinda suck on bet365 as compared to that other site linked. [/ QUOTE ] I made some accidental bets as well and CS is getting them removed.
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#34
08-07-2006, 02:08 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If the tournament truly were an all-in fest, where your stack essentially did a random walk, I defer to the theory gurus but I suspect your chance of winning would be exactly equal to the percentage of chips in play that you hold. [/ QUOTE ] Indeed. This is seen easily as a direct consequence of the linearity of the expectation function. If you're taking a bunch of all-ins with no long-term best or worst of it, then all those EV-zero operations have to have a cumulative EV of zero, so if the only possible payouts are zero and all the chips, P(all the chips) must equal your fraction of the chips. By the way, Doug Kim is probably a good bet but might still be demoralized from his recent defeat to me in heads-up freezeout action. Indeed, I believe this to be the most recent non-tournament poker he has played. More seriously, I think Rizen (Eric Lynch) is a good bet. I have no idea how good he is, but he probably has an edge enough to compensate for the smallish disparity between his chip percentage and the odds on him, and if there is even a few percent chance that each of the two big chipleaders is bad, that would also be enough to compensate. (That is, so much of the first-place equity is tied up in the leaders that either of them sucking and only being worth two-thirds or whatever of that equity would be a boon for the field.) --Nate [/ QUOTE ] haha bastard
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#35
08-07-2006, 02:08 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ok i just made some bets. 100 on eric lynch final table at +700 200 (accidental) on eric lynch to win at +3300 50 on prahlad to win at +2500 the stakes kinda suck on bet365 as compared to that other site linked. [/ QUOTE ] I made some accidental bets as well and CS is getting them removed. [/ QUOTE ] seriously, this site is impossible to understand.
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#36
08-07-2006, 02:17 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
Rizen is down to 11/2 to make the final table according to Bet365. Based on his chipcount, his final table odds are around 5/1 so the Bet365 odds are probably still slightly EV+. 7/1 was clearly EV+.
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#37
08-07-2006, 02:17 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Elaborate or link please. [/ QUOTE ] http://www.cardplayer.com/multimedia/videos/id/19340 Also: Sun Aug 06 22:19:00 PDT 2006 Molina Takes One From Gold With a board showing A632 Gold checks and Molina bets $100,000 into the $200,000 pot. Gold raises to $300,000 total and Molina re-raises all-in for $700,000 more. As Gold ponders the call Molina starts talking to him, "You got caught... just fold... stop wasting time, I have the best hand." Molina then tosses his "all-in" chip at Golds chest and Gold throws it right back at him. Molina continues to talk Gold into folding and eventually Gold folds. Shortly after the pot is raked to Molina he drops an "F-Bomb." Gold calls a floorman over and Molina gets a penalty for 10 mintues. As Molina leaves he tells Gold how much he enjoys the chips he just took off him. Expect these two to continue bucking heads throughout the rest of the tournament. [/ QUOTE ] I think a lot of these stories get skewed just becasue they are so short - you lose some of the context. Molina seems a little cocky, but I doubt he's a total douche he's made out to be here.
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#39
08-07-2006, 02:25 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Shortly after the pot is raked to Molina he drops an "F-Bomb." Gold calls a floorman over and Molina gets a penalty for 10 mintues. [/ QUOTE ] This is just the most recent example of a player calling the floor for an F-bomb. I guess the most visible was Sheikhan doing it on Matusow on TV at the 2005 ME. It strikes me as such a cry-baby thing to do. Obviously there's a tactical benefit but really, it just seems like such a douche-bag move. It's the poker equivalent of a football player's dive for a penalty.
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#40
08-07-2006, 02:27 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Shortly after the pot is raked to Molina he drops an "F-Bomb." Gold calls a floorman over and Molina gets a penalty for 10 mintues. [/ QUOTE ] This is just the most recent example of a player calling the floor for an F-bomb. I guess the most visible was Sheikhan doing it on Matusow on TV at the 2005 ME. It strikes me as such a cry-baby thing to do. Obviously there's a tactical benefit but really, it just seems like such a douche-bag move. It's the poker equivalent of a football player's dive for a penalty. [/ QUOTE ] he deserved it...considering he threw his all-in button at the guy earlier.
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