How would you play - a late live home MTT question

[vypremik]

Please let me know how you would play this AND why. There are several points pulling in different directions and I am wondering what players' opinions about the hand are.

This is from a home NLHE MTT. Started with 20 players, down to 8 at final table.

Background: First hour was re-buy and saw some action. This is about 3.5 hours into tourney and players have tightened up and a pre-flop raise will usually win the pot at this point.

There are 3 small stacks, 2 fairly big stacks, a huge stack, and me in fourth place. The tourney pays the top 3 spots.

I have played in a few hands at the final table, but have not gotten past the flop.

Player of most interest is in BB+5. Early in the tourney, immediately after my only re-buy, I took all of his chips, forcing him to re-buy. He played pretty aggresively during the re-buy period, but I'm pretty sure he has not yet played a hand at the final table.

Blinds are 5,000/10,000 - no ante

SB (80,000)
BB (60,000)
BB+1 Me (180,000) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB+2 (80,000)
BB+3 (400,000)
BB+4 (1,200,000)
BB+5 (600,000)
Button (45,000) - nursing his last 2 beers, he has folded most hands

Action

I raise to 25,000 and it is folded to BB+5. He quietly raises it to 75,000. The button deliberates and mutters for a few minutes, then goes all-in.

I'm pretty sure he has a good hand. I ask him What do have, Queens? and he doesn't answer. Somebody says, No, he has Aces. I say, No, he doesn't have aces. Is it queens? He shakes his head slightly and says, Higher .

What do you do and why?

[rockin]

what the heck are your seating positions, BB+5???

First, learn the positions. Second, it wouldn't be big blind +5, because you work backward from the BB. so SB would be BB-1. Just an FYI.

[0evg0]

And third, this is the most retardedly easy fold ever.

Where's the YSSCKY poll option?

[octaveshift]

Dude, fold this with the quickness. A8o? WTF.

[AceLuby]

A8o UTG??? Please fold this PF, I know the ace looks pretty, but this is an easy fold.

[Yo Adrians!]

Fold. And stop asking such silly questions.

[vypremik]

First of all, let me say thank you to the welcoming committee for reminding me why I had not posted here for nearly a year. For those of you who actually want to analyze the problem and not criticize its format, let me outline it in a bit more detail.

1) I am currently in fourth place (top 3 pay) and am next to post the blind. Some of you may feel it is better to wait for a premium hand, but my M is currently 12, with an effective M of 9.6. After the blinds pass me, M = 11, with an effective M of 8.8. In a few hands when the blinds go up, my M=5.5, with an effective M=4.4 (lower if someone gets knocked out).

2) Most hands had been won with a small raise, so there was a good chance of picking up 15,000 with no resistance.

3) There is currently 160,000 in the pot and it costs me 50,000 to call. If only the big stack was in the pot, a call is almost mandatory. I have 155,000 left if I fold. The expected value if I go all-in right now (and he calls-which he should) is about 178,360.

Hand........................Chance....My Odds... Expected Payout
Mid Pair (TT-KK)........65%.............30%............ 101,400
Under Pair.................10%.............45%.......... ... 23,400
A w/overcard.............10%.............28%.......... ....14,560
AA..........................…5%.............30%... .............7,800
Bluff/undercards...... .10%..............60%..............31,200
Total............................................. .....…….......178,360

Even if I KNEW he had a mid pair, I still have an expected payout of 156,000, making all-in a barely profitable play.

4) The fact that the button went all-in increases the pot, but hurts my odds. I know he doesn’t have a monster. It is very unlikely he even has an ace, as he actually took the time away from his 8th beer of the night to think about it.

5) If I fold, I am left with 155,000. If I go all-in pre-flop and get called I will win 520,000 if I take the whole pot. If I win just the side pot, I have 385,000.

6) I actually went through these steps (in a simplified form) that night.

Now that you have thought about it, too. Tell me…do you still fold?

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

Now that you have thought about it, too. Tell me…do you still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Sorry dude, I don't think it's close.

[2Fast]

you gotta fold pf with A8o 8-handed UTG - the way you played it def. fold to the raise

[0evg0]

LOL

I love that he went through all this work to prove 2+2=5.

Maybe the reason you haven't posted here in a year is because you really don't care about improving and care more about convincing others that your ridiculously bad play is justified?

Oh, and...

[ QUOTE ]
If only the big stack was in the pot, a call is almost mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Laughing your ass off at this is almost mandatory as well.