c/t: Making big monies with the Whale

[Bukem_]

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Also, I am 6tabling 6max, so 6ptbb isn't terrible.

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6ptbb is an excellent winrate. People skew their opinions so easily cause its easy to go on a huge heater vs idiots at small stakes, and most people who successfully make the jump to mid-high stakes start out running well with a run of 20k hands at 9-14ptbb.

[epdaws]

BW --

First, 20k hands is a pretty small sample size. If you think that 20k hands is enough to prove a winning player, well, that surprises me.

Second, I was hoping you meant 16 PTBB/100 at NL 25. 6-tabling shouldn't make that much of an impact at that level. I have no doubt you're a winning player, but that just goes to show that your sample size for targeting win-rate and then moving up is muy pequeno.

I would guess that there is all this talk about moving up strategies lately because of Tickner, but it's a little strange to see. I'm not sure there is one correct approach, and I don't know why everyone seems to be searching for the Holy Grail on this.

[epdaws]

Also...

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Well... a lot of playing results in a lot of skill.


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I would strongly disagree with this. Practice does not make perfect. Practice makes permanent.

[QuentinCompson]

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First, 20k hands is a pretty small sample size.

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Second, I was hoping you meant 16 PTBB/100 at NL 25. 6-tabling shouldn't make that much of an impact at that level. I have no doubt you're a winning player, but that just goes to show that your sample size for targeting win-rate and then moving up is muy pequeno.

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After 20K hands, if we run at 6BB/100, our true win rate may be nearer to 0. Of course, we may still be a 10+ BB/100 winner. 20K is much too small to claim a reliable winrate. However, 20K at 25NL with any profit is good enough to move up if one is properly rolled for 50NL and understands bankroll management.

SSNL is a place to learn the game, and we come closer to mastering the game as we move up from level to level. If we are pretty sure that we are a winner and we are well rolled, then we can move up. Who cares if I'm a 2BB/100 or a 20BB/100 at 25NL; in fact, it is possible that a certain playing style would gross a higher BB/100 at 50NL than 25NL, based on the average opponent's style of play.

However, I realize that I have overlooked a very important point: one key thing that all NL hold'em players must learn is how to adapt to a certain set of variables. If we have to change our style of play to beat 25NL--where most opponents play very erratically--as opposed to a higher stakes style of play, then we should reason out how to do so: and so we reason that a TAG style seems to be the best option. And as we move up in limits, we start to see this type of variation on a table-by-table and a player-by-player basis. We have to be able to pick out the correct play with a certain hand against a certain style of player based on that player's hand range and tendencies, etc.

I think that this is very difficult to grasp at 25NL; actually, it may even be -EV to give your opponents the credit of playing in a predictable manner. This is why I advocate moving up from 25NL with any winning rate, so long as one understands the most basic of poker strategy.

This thread has solid advice. All it takes to move up is a substantial bankroll and some confidence that you can beat the game, along with the modesty to admit that you always have room for improvement.

[epdaws]

Well said, QC.

[BalugaWhale]

jamougha, epdaws--

The number I chose (20k hands) is what I felt was necessary for me to feel confident that I can beat that level. You are right in saying that the winrate is basically pointless... when I played, to have KK be my 5th biggest losing hand after 35k hands and still have a ptbb of 6, I felt confident enough in beating 25nl to move up.

quentin-
Well said. I was going to (but forgot to) include a little bit on modesty and the constant need for improvement. There is a big difference between confidence and cockiness. If you feel yourself straining against both variance and bad play, drop down to a limit you beat before. You should have plenty of a roll at that point to be safe there, but if not, drop down again. There's no shame in it, and once you start winning again you'll be back up in no time.

Oh yeah, and
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Also...

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Well... a lot of playing results in a lot of skill.




I would strongly disagree with this. Practice does not make perfect. Practice makes permanent.

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Nothing has helped me improve more than seeing situations thousands and thousands of times. Certainly it is possible to practice the wrong things and get those ingrained, but in my opinion 2p2 is the place to take areas of your game in which you're not sure of. Practice does help you narrow down your opponents ranges and to work on evaluating your FE, board texture, developing reads, etc. There is no substitute for experience.

[goofyballer]

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Nooooooooo i did a Pokey

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AAHAHAHAHAH LOL

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Whats a pokey?

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[ajmargarine]

edited post title to reflect your baller status.

nice post. I think. I just skimmed it. It was long so it must have been good. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[yad]

Nice post. I think my main problem has been the confidence part. My game has certainly improved as I moved up, and I did make a few big changes between NL100 and NL200. But on the whole I think I could have moved up much more quickly had I been absolutely convinced I could beat the next level. But not being convinced like this leads me to do all sorts of ridiculous things.

e.g. I have some lousy hand on the button, raise some limper, get a call from the BB. Flop is ragged, doesn't help me. Dude checks, I bet, he check-raises me. My 3-betting frequency is way higher when I am at 400NL than at 200NL because I am paranoid about people taking advantage of me. I don't have the confidence and, more importantly, the patience that comes with that confidence.

Then it's weird, at some point I just become convinced that I can beat a level and at that point become hugely more profitable. Actually I think once I start taking shots two levels up I become confident in the one level up (e.g. moved up to 200NL, start taking shots at 400NL, now feel completely confident at 200NL).

[yad]

With skill, BTW, I think it is much more important to constantly evaluate how you played individual hands than it is to worry about your ptbb/100 after 20K hands. That doesn't really tell you much -- I regularly run at 15 PTBB/100 and at 0 PTBB/100 over stretches like that, even at levels where I am pretty sure that my true winrate is 5-7 PTBB/100.

Looking at important hands doesn't get at certain subtle points in your game (like you are defending your blind a bit too much and bleeding a bit more than you should, or you aren't stealing blinds as much as you could). So you need to also use PT to look for these issues. But winrate is probably the leats useful thing to be looking at to judge your skill.