Q9s marginal hand play - Page 2

Aaron W. · #11 07-25-2006, 02:38 PM

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and maybe even a raise to see where you are standing.

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Bet/raise for value and because you have the best hand. Any 'info' you get is tainted.

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I don't know how often hero is ahead of the guy who only plays 11% of his hands.

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Since he pf-raises 6% of them, you know he doesn't have the best ones... he has the borderline ones. Maybe KQ, but he has a high aggression, so I'd expect a raise out of him.

KO

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I'd rather keep BB betting and see what STAG does on the turn. For a player that tight, the only hands that he can hold that you currently beat is probably KJ and MAYBE KT (JJ probably gets raised by 6% PFR).

Keep in mind that high AF comes from a combination of betting AND calling. If villain is weak postflop and does a lot of folding, then his fewer calls will drive the aggression up.

KingOtter · #12 07-25-2006, 02:54 PM

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I'd rather keep BB betting and see what STAG does on the turn. For a player that tight, the only hands that he can hold that you currently beat is probably KJ and MAYBE KT (JJ probably gets raised by 6% PFR).

Keep in mind that high AF comes from a combination of betting AND calling. If villain is weak postflop and does a lot of folding, then his fewer calls will drive the aggression up.

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Umm, aggression factor is a combination of raising and betting, not betting and calling, so I agree with the second sentence (more folds = less calls = higher aggression), but don't understand the first (aggression factor is betting and calling).

So with 1.9 he's twice as likely to bet/raise as call. So 66% of the time he bets, and 33% of the time he calls. He has 2 chances on the flop, and he calls both. Unless he is a good player and is 'changing speeds', or Hero has been aggressive and MP2 expects him to keep betting... or he doesn't have TP, IMO.

Yeah, I see the benefits of keeping BB in on the turn, cuz it allows STAG to raise BB's bet instead of our own, if he's going to.... having a read on the liklihood of MP2 to c/r would be nice.

Turn is tricky... what a lousy card. You have outs now against any hands he might have without a K. Check behind, I guess.

KO

Aaron W. · #13 07-25-2006, 03:29 PM

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Umm, aggression factor is a combination of raising and betting, not betting and calling, so I agree with the second sentence (more folds = less calls = higher aggression), but don't understand the first (aggression factor is betting and calling).

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To clarify: Aggression factor as the ratio of (bets/raises) to (calls) depends on both categories. So what I meant was that seeing high AF does not mean that villain value bets/raises at every possible instance. It could also mean that he's folding lots (instead of calling), so that when he's in a hand, he's got a pretty decent one, which he sometimes raises and sometimes calls. If he would raise AQ/KQ and just call with QJ, that would make a 2 AF.

Str8Fish · #14 07-25-2006, 03:33 PM

10/6/2 isn't TAG is it? That's a rock. Knowing that, he only limps in 10% of his hands?!?!? That's so crazy... i'd be hella suspicious with him limping in. On the flop here, we still have top pair, but I'd still be cautious with what MP3 is calling the raise with. Do you have any information on how often this guy c/r the turn? My next move would definitely be to raise, but be careful on the turn.

Str8Fish · #15 07-25-2006, 03:35 PM

On the turn, this is where I would tread cautiously against this guy. I'd check behind him HU against the rock.

kiemo · #16 07-25-2006, 03:35 PM

I like the flop bet.

I would fire again on the turn with intention checking behind the river.

Aaron W. · #17 07-25-2006, 03:39 PM

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Ok, I raised for value figuring MP3 would've probably raised if he had a Q and I wasn't worried about BB. How about the turn...

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero ???

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As played, I think you can bet-fold (probably check behind on the river). It's better than checking behind and calling a river bet, and if you're going to raise the flop, there's no point in calling to fold the river UI. The bet here is a value bet in case villain happens to be on KJ or maybe KT and will definitely pay one more bet to see the river. I don't know if he pays off with KJ or KT on the river, which is why I probably check behind.

brentlip · #18 07-25-2006, 03:44 PM

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Yeah, I see the benefits of keeping BB in on the turn, cuz it allows STAG to raise BB's bet instead of our own, if he's going to.... having a read on the liklihood of MP2 to c/r would be nice.

Turn is tricky... what a lousy card. You have outs now against any hands he might have without a K. Check behind, I guess.

KO

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Lousy card indeed.

He's only check raised twice before. Once on the flop and once on the turn. (I didn't know this at the time)

I'm not sure I see the benefits of keeping BB in on the turn. He probably has a bad hand or nothing with 1 overcard I want him to pay right (he does a lot of the time)?

Also, what do I do when I'm facing 2 on the turn because MP3 picks up a J and an OESD (or he has me crushed)? This puts me in a difficult situation because he's probably aware of how BB plays and now I'm worried about BB 3 betting AND being crushed by MP3.

However, if he raises the turn or donks me on the turn after I raised the flop shows more strength than a turn raise (to BBs turn bet) if I only called the flop.

Anyway, I checked behind on the turn.

Bodizapha · #19 07-25-2006, 04:19 PM

I'd bet the turn. If he c/r you then you know you are probably beat. BTW, nice raise on the flop.

KingOtter · #20 07-25-2006, 04:48 PM

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Umm, aggression factor is a combination of raising and betting, not betting and calling, so I agree with the second sentence (more folds = less calls = higher aggression), but don't understand the first (aggression factor is betting and calling).

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To clarify: Aggression factor as the ratio of (bets/raises) to (calls) depends on both categories. So what I meant was that seeing high AF does not mean that villain value bets/raises at every possible instance. It could also mean that he's folding lots (instead of calling), so that when he's in a hand, he's got a pretty decent one, which he sometimes raises and sometimes calls. If he would raise AQ/KQ and just call with QJ, that would make a 2 AF.

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I don't know why you only chose those three hands as an example because he'll call with many draws, too. This means he's even more likely to bet a Q, since he has to to compensate for calling the draws.