Getting CR on river for value betting

jumbojacks · #1 07-12-2006, 02:24 AM

BB is an aggro postflop w/ 33.3/18.1 over 204 hands.
3.75/3/3.17 postflop AF
My notes:
bet 6 midpair in front of 2 and pf raiser; raises on flop and bets turn w/ QJo overs on drawless board; raises T low midpair over in mid-position on flop and bets turn
Summary: crazy aggressive w/ midpair on flop

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 7 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

His raise just means he has at least a pair. As low as bottom pair is good enough for him too.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: (8.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

I value-bet here but once he raised I think he hit two-pair. Against a player like him I'm not sure if a call is good at least ~8% of the time.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

cold_cash · #2 07-12-2006, 02:38 AM

Dude seems like a spaz, I'd call.

I wouldn't get my hopes up, but I'd still call.

Manhammer · #3 07-12-2006, 02:49 AM

I think its fine.
The c/r doesn't look too good for us, but I think your read that this guy is kind of whacky makes me think he's gonna try some goofy bluff or have something like KJ/K9 or whatever >8% of the time.

Good job on the read.

Crackpot · #4 07-12-2006, 05:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BB is an aggro postflop w/ 33.3/18.1 over 204 hands.
3.75/3/3.17 postflop AF
My notes:
bet 6 midpair in front of 2 and pf raiser; raises on flop and bets turn w/ QJo overs on drawless board; raises T low midpair over in mid-position on flop and bets turn
Summary: crazy aggressive w/ midpair on flop

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K.
Hero raises, 7 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T, 7, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Based on your notes, I thinks villian leads out on the flop with middle/bottom pair. A check-raise signifies something stronger here. Possibilities include: T w/overcard, a set, or 8 9.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (4.25 BB) K (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, we're in good shape now. Villian would have 3-bet with K T, or a set. I still think A T, Q T, J T, and 8 9 are all possible here.

[ QUOTE ]
River: (8.25 BB) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

I value-bet here but once he raised I think he hit two-pair. Against a player like him I'm not sure if a call is good at least ~8% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, villian just paired up his kicker I think. I'm about 85-90% sure were beat here, but that still justifies a call.

kerowo · #5 07-12-2006, 08:24 AM

What's your plan if you are unimproved on the turn?

Crackpot · #6 07-12-2006, 11:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Based on your notes, I thinks villian leads out on the flop with middle/bottom pair. A check-raise signifies something stronger here. Possibilities include: T w/overcard, a set, or 8 9

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. I just reread my post. There's no way villian could've flopped a set. He's raising PF 100% of the time w/any pocket pair.

Fantam · #7 07-12-2006, 11:30 AM

I think that you will be good often enough to call the river raise against this opponent.

Gregatron · #8 07-12-2006, 11:32 AM

It doesn't look bad initially. I think you played this hand okay, but I also think it would be okay to let him bluff his money off when you hit on the turn. If you think there is a chance he will fold something like midpair (which you didn't mention in your read -- you just said he bets them, not if he is able to lay down to agression) then a more passive line might be in order. All in all, I don't hate it, and make a crying call on the end there.

Crackpot · #9 07-12-2006, 11:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What's your plan if you are unimproved on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

We clearly have to fold the turn uninproved. After being check raised on the flop, and led into on the turn, we're drawing very slim. For all we know at that point, villian could have A T, or K T, in which case we are drawing to only 3 outs if we call. There is no way we are going to bluff this type of player out of this pot, so it's pointless to try and raise. Therefore, folding is the clear choice on an uninproved river. The only reason to take any other action would be to alter your your table image, but at these limits 90% of your opponents aren't paying close enough attention to make it worthwile.