.5/1 Correct to peel?

[Atlanta Andrew]

I made an assumption based on BB's loose-passive pre-flop play that he would be c/r very rarely. You make a good point, though. I am not sure what BB's c/r% would need to be to make this situation a clear fold.

Going the other way (in favor of calling), I forgot to mention the possibility of MP checking the turn and giving us a free card. That's worth a little something.

Still a marginal decision I think.

[Machinehead]

I definitely peel here. I won't pop him if I pair up on the turn though.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
Just because the outs are not clean does not necessarily mean we do not have odds to draw.

How I would count them:

BDFD = 1.5 outs
A = 1.25 outs
J = .25 outs
BDSt8 = .25 outs

Total Outs = 3.25 outs

Outs needed to call if BB folds (13.5-1) = 3.24
Outs needed to call if BB calls (14.5-1) = 3.03

I think we have ourselves a very marginal decision. I usually peel because gambling is fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

You totally ignore the effective outs. You still have to streets to come and some of your outs are based on picking up a draw.

[Disconnected]

I forget where I read it, but a saying that I like is to the effect of if you don't know whether to call or fold, you should raise. I think raising is better than calling here, but looking at the hand, folding may be the best option.

It doesn't seem like you are ahead of MP very often at this point, and if BB is on a draw, a lot of your backdoor draws could be expensive on the turn. But a raise could protect against some of the weaker BB draws, and could potentially buy you a free card, if you choose.

I don't like any of the options -- folding seems a little weak, calling seems wrong, and raising seems like spewing.

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just because the outs are not clean does not necessarily mean we do not have odds to draw.

How I would count them:

BDFD = 1.5 outs
A = 1.25 outs
J = .25 outs
BDSt8 = .25 outs

Total Outs = 3.25 outs

Outs needed to call if BB folds (13.5-1) = 3.24
Outs needed to call if BB calls (14.5-1) = 3.03

I think we have ourselves a very marginal decision. I usually peel because gambling is fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

You totally ignore the effective outs. You still have to streets to come and some of your outs are based on picking up a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just because the outs are not clean does not necessarily mean we do not have odds to draw.

How I would count them:

BDFD = 1.5 outs
A = 1.25 outs
J = .25 outs
BDSt8 = .25 outs

Total Outs = 3.25 outs

Outs needed to call if BB folds (13.5-1) = 3.24
Outs needed to call if BB calls (14.5-1) = 3.03

I think we have ourselves a very marginal decision. I usually peel because gambling is fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

You totally ignore the effective outs. You still have to streets to come and some of your outs are based on picking up a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also ignore the extra bets we earn when we make our hands. Effective odds work both ways.

The outs I listed above are arbitrary, but I think they are discounted enough to factor in reverse implied odds. For example, the actual odds of hitting a BDFD are (10/47)(9/46) = .0416% or roughly 2 outs on the flop. I have used only 1.5 outs in my calculation.

Peel!

If I am on the wrong path here, please point me in the right direction, preferably with some numbers. Thanks.

-Andrew