Big Llamas Make Big Bluffs

The Funky Llama · #1 06-16-2006, 09:38 PM

Villain is 33/19/1.9 after 11k hands. Anyone take a different turn action?

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets

The Truth · #2 06-16-2006, 09:52 PM

What was his WTS?

River is pretty standard once you get there.

I was trying to find a check fold on the turn, but his range remains real wide. I think you played it fine.

Unless his WTS is off the charts you gotta fire the river.

cartman · #3 06-17-2006, 01:32 AM

I probably check/fold the river. Most guys cant fold a pair and when he calls the turn he has to have a spade, a pair, or an Ace in my opinion.

TStoneMBD · #4 06-17-2006, 01:37 AM

i think river is standard. turn confuses me too but i bet also but this is one of those spots i wish i had a better line for.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #5 06-17-2006, 01:39 AM

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I probably check/fold the river. Most guys cant fold a pair and when he calls the turn he has to have a spade, a pair, or an Ace in my opinion.

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You dont think this guy will fold Jx & 66-TT with no spade in this spot? I think theres a great chance he will, which is why I think this is an excellent river bluff. Im too tired right now to put the villain on a range and then figure out mathematically if this river bluff is profitable assuming the villain always folds Jx & 66-TT with no spade, but my instincts tell me this is a profitable bluff but I could be wrong.

siegfriedandroy · #6 06-17-2006, 01:49 AM

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I probably check/fold the river. Most guys cant fold a pair and when he calls the turn he has to have a spade, a pair, or an Ace in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. hard to see what he's possibly folding here

siegfriedandroy · #7 06-17-2006, 01:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I probably check/fold the river. Most guys cant fold a pair and when he calls the turn he has to have a spade, a pair, or an Ace in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

You dont think this guy will fold Jx & 66-TT with no spade in this spot? I think theres a great chance he will, which is why I think this is an excellent river bluff. Im too tired right now to put the villain on a range and then figure out mathematically if this river bluff is profitable assuming the villain always folds Jx & 66-TT with no spade, but my instincts tell me this is a profitable bluff but I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. i now see what villain is 'possibly folding'!! guess it may well be profitable.

The Funky Llama · #8 06-17-2006, 01:20 PM

When I made the river bet I thought he could fold the following hands:

66,77,88,99,TT without a spade

J9,JT,JK without a spade

Possibly Q8/Q9/QT without a spade

I think this is more than enough to make a bet getting 6.5:1.

Villain called my river bet with a spadeless Q9 and dragged the pot.

piki · #9 06-17-2006, 02:17 PM

Your opponent hasn't offered any resistance and will thus probably be less inclined to fold marginal hands on the river. So I don't think you will fold a Q ever, and just maybe he folds a J 1 in 6 times. Also, just too likely he has a spade himself, much more likely than better spade-less pockets, which are prime targets for your bluff.

Thus I'd say river bluff was somewhat -EV. I have trouble figuring out what line would be good, because by turn you are in quite a tough spot. What do you think about check/calling turn?

-pix