Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log

[sygamel]

All picks will be located at SYGamel's NFL Picks as well as on this thread. I will likely post picks on the website before getting them in here.

Tech, feel free to eliminate the link above; however, I am not selling anything on the website. All picks are free.

[sygamel]

Oakland Raiders +7 +106
$47.17 to win $50 (1 unit)
Pinnacle 8/30/05

Tennessee Titans to win +275
$36.36 to win $100.00 (2 units)
TradeSports 9/8/05

Note: +275 is the lowest number to play for a 2 unit bet on this game. +225 is the lowest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

All free picks cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

[sygamel]

Baltimore Ravens to win +131
$38.17 to win $50.00 (1 unit)
Pinnacle 9/9/05

Note: +130 is the lowest number to play for a 1 unit bet on this game.

All free picks cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't don't know what side is right on this game (yet), but I know that you should have bought to 7.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to razz you too much craig r but I would've been out an extra $6 had I followed your advice. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Hopefully you agree (somewhat) now that giving points does make sense in the right situations.

I will do my best to make amends on Sunday.

[Shakes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't don't know what side is right on this game (yet), but I know that you should have bought to 7.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to razz you too much craig r but I would've been out an extra $6 had I followed your advice. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Hopefully you agree (somewhat) now that giving points does make sense in the right situations.

I will do my best to make amends on Sunday.

[/ QUOTE ]

That the Pats won by 10 doesn't make it wrong to buy the hook on or off the 7 for the right price. Not to razz you, but using the same philosophy, you're out your whole bet by being on the wrong side.

[sygamel]

Well no sh*t MS lol I specifically wrote right after that I'd try to make amends on Sunday or did you not see that? It's one small play of hundreds, I'm not worried.

Craig r and I had a nice discussion going (hardly heated) about buying points so I wanted to make the example that giving points to reduce price and payment in the event of a loss is sometimes a smart play.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
Well no sh*t MS lol I specifically wrote right after that I'd try to make amends on Sunday or did you not see that? It's one small play of hundreds, I'm not worried.

Craig r and I had a nice discussion going (hardly heated) about buying points so I wanted to make the example that giving points to reduce price and payment in the event of a loss is sometimes a smart play.

[/ QUOTE ]

But, this is being very results oriented. Which is what I think Shakes was trying to say. Yes, you would have been out another $6 THIS TIME. But, hindsight is 20/20. It is no different in poker; if the move is +ev, you can't worry about the result. I would not have made a post if NE would have won by exactly 7 telling you "this is why you buy the half point". Because, I know in this instance that it just happened to end that way.

craig

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
But, hindsight is 20/20...I would not have made a post if NE would have won by exactly 7 telling you "this is why you buy the half point". Because, I know in this instance that it just happened to end that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and point taken. But it's not 20/20 hindsight. The idea of giving points for a better price when the algebra works is that you don't have to pay as much when you lose. Without stating so, that was my assertion in the beginning and I am trying to reiterate that now. (I believe I said this specifically in the Trends '92-'04 thread.) Unless you bet with 100% confidence, and I've never had a game rated higher than 75%, minimizing unnecessary loss in the long-run is smart strategy when the math for giving points is with you.

Hey you started out thinking I was dead wrong to give the half-point so at least I've made some progress. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] sy:

nice website; and nice records over 3 years; you'd be amazed at how many top pickers one year cannot even break .500 the next; i like your doggie approach; especially early in the season

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[sygamel]

Thanks scalf, I appreciate it. I am a constant dog picker -- I'd guess only around 15% of my picks are faves. Thanks for checking out the site also.