16T: Short stacked on bubble facing all-in from other short stack

[Wolfram]

CO is obviously pushing a pretty wide range here, though he hadn't pushed alot before getting super short. Big stack had been pwning the bubble and we were both getting desperate.

Should I call because my hand is pretty strong vs. his range or should I fold and let the BB tangle with him? If I call I will have to beat both CO and Button. Sngpt says this is a call but it probably doesn't take into account that BB is pot commited.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t750)
Button (t10245)
Hero (t625)
BB (t1880)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t725 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font>, BB calls t325

Flop: (t1750) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


Turn: (t1750) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t1750) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

[tylanthus]

Good fold.

[jwesty5]

The fold was good here.

[TravestyFund]

yeah, BB is pot com. And you are SSS.

[MikeMcQ1]

I feel like this one is closer than it seems on the surface. BB will be getting very good odds if you call, but he will be loving the fact that you two are going at it and may very well fold a lot of hands. I think you wind up HU against the CO here quite often.

[aghasax]

Why do you think CO's range is wide here? He is pushing through three people knowing that BB should call, and with the possibility that you are calling also. If he absolutely want to make a move before you, wouldn't he be better off waiting til he's in the BB, and hope only one opponent is pushing in to him? Plus he has more chips than you. Because of this you are probably dominated, and for me that makes the fold even better. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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[Wolfram]

I don't think there's any chance that BB will fold if I call. Let's look at it from his perspective. He's allready put in 400 so it costs him 350 to call. Lets say I call and:

1. BB folds, then either

1.a CO wins, BB makes it ITM with 1440 and stacks are:
CO (t1825)
Button (t10220)
BB (t1455)

1.b I win, stacks are:

CO (t125)
Button (t10220)
Hero (t1700)
BB (t1455)

---

2. BB calls, then:

2.a CO wins, BB makes it ITM with 1105:
CO (t2175)
Button (t10220)
BB (t1105)

2.b I win, stacks are:
CO (t125)
Button (t10220)
Hero (t2050)
BB (t1105)

2.c BB wins, and guarantees 2nd:
Button (t10220)
BB (t3280)

---

Notice for 1.b and 2.b that CO is almost guaranteed to bust since he will be All-in for the next 2 hands.

So the only "bad" outcome for BB if he calls is 2.b (where he's still very likely to make it ITM) and I think that's outweighed by his chance to clinch 2nd if he beats us both.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think CO's range is wide here? He is pushing through three people knowing that BB should call, and with the possibility that you are calling also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats true, and when I say wide I don't mean 100%, but any hand better than 50% because he will be all in in the next 2 hands and can't count on catching 50%+. He might even be tighter than that but I still feel that A2 beats his range in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
Plus he has more chips than you. Because of this you are probably dominated

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this argument. Only way I'm dominated is if he has a better Ax or PP. I don't see what the stack sizes have to do with that.

[BillytheKidd]

I think you made a solid fold here, especially after reading through your analysis of the possible outcomes.

[Guthrie]

Has CO been pushing before this? If he hasn't, then he may well not be pushing any two, but waiting for a premium hand. This is the typical donk move at the 16s--they don't push because the math tells them to, they push because they lucked into KK just before blinding out.

Also, if you call, the BB calls and knocks you both out, you're fourth. If you call, your only chance to stay in the game is to win. By folding, you stay alive for at least one more hand. If the BB knocks out CO, you monied. If not, well, you were screwed anyway.