Hoping for Coin Flips

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

[/ QUOTE ]
You're not catching the fact that just because your opponent has a ~5% chance of being *dealt* a pair, that doesn't mean that ~5% of his *pushing range* is made up of pairs.

[FGators]

I pulled the 5% out of the Phil Gordon book..Little Green Book. I could have made it 5.8% but just cut it down.

Here's the example that jumpstarted this thread. M of 10.8. Picking up 800 chips is a nice addition to the stack at this stage, where players are playing tight. They might lay down a pair themselves, if it's under nines, but most likely they are looking for double up opportunities as well. In general, table has been playing tight and scared, since we are on the bubble. A few have typed in the chat box that they just want to get the bubble over with so, implying they want their money and then will loosen up. This is a $22 180 man tourney on Stars. I figured I could either push or limp in and maybe see a flop and bet a raggedy board. A raise is out of the question. How would you play this? MP2 is a tight player, who comes in for a raise with a top notch hand. MP2 doesn't have a top 4 hand from what I've seen, though he could be getting tricky and hoping the SB pushes.
We have a short stack in the SB, who could be getting desperate. There COULD be a raise by the button, but he's a TAG. No reads on the BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[FGators]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

[/ QUOTE ]
You're not catching the fact that just because your opponent has a ~5% chance of being *dealt* a pair, that doesn't mean that ~5% of his *pushing range* is made up of pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand. I was really using this as a stat of what to do when an opponent pushes... wouldn't you say if I'm holding a pair and it's 5% likely to get one that most of the time the opponent will be pushing overcards so I'm ahead a small amount?

We all know it's more likely to be dealt two non paired cards than two paired cards...so if I have a pair and there is a push in front and there is one or no people behind me shouldn't I gamble here "hoping for a coin flip?"...even though we should never be hoping.

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
I pulled the 5% out of the Phil Gordon book..Little Green Book. I could have made it 5.8% but just cut it down.

Here's the example that jumpstarted this thread. M of 10.8. Picking up 800 chips is a nice addition to the stack at this stage, where players are playing tight. They might lay down a pair themselves, if it's under nines, but most likely they are looking for double up opportunities as well. In general, table has been playing tight and scared, since we are on the bubble. A few have typed in the chat box that they just want to get the bubble over with so, implying they want their money and then will loosen up. This is a $22 180 man tourney on Stars. I figured I could either push or limp in and maybe see a flop and bet a raggedy board. A raise is out of the question. How would you play this? MP2 is a tight player, who comes in for a raise with a top notch hand. MP2 doesn't have a top 4 hand from what I've seen, though he could be getting tricky and hoping the SB pushes.
We have a short stack in the SB, who could be getting desperate. There COULD be a raise by the button, but he's a TAG. No reads on the BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

60/40 limp/fold

[elmitchbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I pulled the 5% out of the Phil Gordon book..Little Green Book. I could have made it 5.8% but just cut it down.

Here's the example that jumpstarted this thread. M of 10.8. Picking up 800 chips is a nice addition to the stack at this stage, where players are playing tight. They might lay down a pair themselves, if it's under nines, but most likely they are looking for double up opportunities as well. In general, table has been playing tight and scared, since we are on the bubble. A few have typed in the chat box that they just want to get the bubble over with so, implying they want their money and then will loosen up. This is a $22 180 man tourney on Stars. I figured I could either push or limp in and maybe see a flop and bet a raggedy board. A raise is out of the question. How would you play this? MP2 is a tight player, who comes in for a raise with a top notch hand. MP2 doesn't have a top 4 hand from what I've seen, though he could be getting tricky and hoping the SB pushes.
We have a short stack in the SB, who could be getting desperate. There COULD be a raise by the button, but he's a TAG. No reads on the BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

60/40 limp/fold

[/ QUOTE ]

you're spitting the weak tight advice rockin. i also think you're wrong with your interpretation of HOH.

with an M under 5 you need to call ANY push with ANY pocket pair. you want to have first in/fold equity on your side when you push with Q2o or T8s. those types of hands are push or fold. a pocket pair is a solid holding and should be played as such.

in that particular hand. i think you can put in a normal raise there with an M of 11. if you get called you could push a non-ace flop.

i wouldn't fault you at all for pushing and taking the blinds. i prefer something more assertive than a call here because you'd be happy to take the blinds without a flop. if the SB pushes you call and hold up against his KJo or whatever. folding there is just to weak/tight for my taste. maybe i could fold it in EP... but in the CO?

the main thing is if you run around trying to avoid races you're going to give up a ton of equity by laying down the best hand far too often.

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
wouldn't you say if I'm holding a pair and it's 5% likely to get one that most of the time the opponent will be pushing overcards so I'm ahead a small amount?

We all know it's more likely to be dealt two non paired cards than two paired cards...so if I have a pair and there is a push in front and there is one or no people behind me shouldn't I gamble here "hoping for a coin flip?"...even though we should never be hoping.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's too fuzzy. The math is easy. Just construct a pushing range for your opponent, and count the possible card combinations. There are 6 ways to be dealt any particular pair. There are 16 ways to be dealt any particular non-pair hand. So for example if your opponent has a pushing range of TT+ and AQ+, that's 5x6=30 possible pairs and 2x16=32 possible non-pairs. Fiddle with the pushing range and see how often you're up against a non-pair. Then, remember that when he has a non-pair, you're usually only slightly ahead, and usually crushed when he has a pair.

[Solitare]

OK, there is a lot of back and forth over this 5-6% chance of a pair think that I think an example is in order.

Lets say its early in a tournament, full table, and UTG raises. What are the chances that he is raising with a pair?

First, let's put UTG on a range of hands -- AA-99, AKs-AJs, and AKo-AQo.

A pair can be made 6 ways, AA-99 represents 6 different pairs, so that is 6 * 6 = 36 hands

Two specific suited cards can be made 4 ways. AKs-AJs represents 3 different hands, so 3 * 4 = 12 hands.

Two specific unsuited cards can be made 12 ways. AKo-AQo represents 2 different hands, so 2 * 12 = 24 hands.

So UTG is raising with 72 different hands, of which 36 of them are pairs. This UTG raiser will have a pair 50% of the time.

This is not 5-6%. The 5-6% is swell and all, but means very little during actual play. What matters is the percentage of times the villain will have a pair WITHIN THE RANGE OF HANDS HE WILL PLAY.

And FGators, that percentage is not affected by whether or not you have a pair, if your pair is not in his range. Even if your pair is in his range, you are taking only a couple of hands out of his range, so the % is not affected that much.

[FGators]

Let's just say I followed Rockin's advice of who told me to limp in this spot. The SB who has an M of 3.875. He's been playing tight poker throughout the tournament, as he has been at my hand for four levels now. He pushes. Is this an easy call? If I lose this hand I'd be knocked down quite a few pegs and be in major trouble.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: Hero is CO with :4c, :4s.
[color=#666666]2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t400, Hero calls t400, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB raises to t3100</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP2 folds

[Solitare]

You can call 2900 to win a 7400 pot, so your calling odds are 39%.

Let say that the SB is pushing with 25% of his hands, which according to PokerStove is a range of A5+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, and JTo. Against this range, your 44 has a 46% change of winning.

So calling is EV+, but not by much.

[FGators]

[ QUOTE ]
You can call 2900 to win a 7400 pot, so your calling odds are 39%.

Let say that the SB is pushing with 25% of his hands, which according to PokerStove is a range of A5+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, and JTo. Against this range, your 44 has a 46% change of winning.

So calling is EV+, but not by much.

[/ QUOTE ]

The not by much is the whole thing. How desperate should I be? How much +EV do I need in these situations?

Is this why it might just be better to shove all in here when I'm in the cutoff, not even worrying about what MP2 could have limped in front of me even though he hasn't played many hands, and even though I still have the button and the two blinds behind me?