Hoping for Coin Flips

[Foucault]

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exactly. unless he has a top tier hand. you can't play a short stack the same as if you have an average stack.

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Have to disagree with you here. Short-stacked is the worst time to pass up marginal edges, because it is so likely that you will be forced into making a -EV play in the near future. Very often, short stack pushes are either marginally +EV or slightly -EV. They are desperation plays made to avoid being forced into an even worse situation later. Say it's folded around to you in the SB and you have 5 BB's left. You should push here regardless of what two cards you hold, not because you expect Villain to fold often enough to make up for being a dog against his calling range, but because you will probably not get a better opportunity to put your chips in.

If you were the BB with 5 BB's remaining and it were folded to the SB, who also had 5 BB's left, and he went all in, are you throwing away 55?

[rockin]

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exactly. unless he has a top tier hand. you can't play a short stack the same as if you have an average stack.

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Have to disagree with you here. Short-stacked is the worst time to pass up marginal edges, because it is so likely that you will be forced into making a -EV play in the near future. Very often, short stack pushes are either marginally +EV or slightly -EV. They are desperation plays made to avoid being forced into an even worse situation later. Say it's folded around to you in the SB and you have 5 BB's left. You should push here regardless of what two cards you hold, not because you expect Villain to fold often enough to make up for being a dog against his calling range, but because you will probably not get a better opportunity to put your chips in.

If you were the BB with 5 BB's remaining and it were folded to the SB, who also had 5 BB's left, and he went all in, are you throwing away 55?

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I am by no means an expert. I am only the messenger. ACCORDING to HOH2 and according to this ONLY. Another expert or another author may recommend different.

[burningyen]

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Odds of being dealt a pair are about 5%.

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This factoid shows that you're dangerously misguided in how you think about hand distribution. Assuming this 5% figure is true, it's only useful if your opponent's pushing range is any 2 cards. As someone suggested earlier in the thread, get pokerstove.

[Foucault]

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I am by no means an expert. I am only the messenger. ACCORDING to HOH2 and according to this ONLY. Another expert or another author may recommend different.

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Where does Harrington advocate making a fold like this? I think you might be confusing the section where he says the value of low pairs goes down when M's get low because you can't play them for set value any more. I don't think he advocated passing up +cEV calls when you are short-stacked.

[Solitare]

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If you were the BB with 5 BB's remaining and it were folded to the SB, who also had 5 BB's left, and he went all in, are you throwing away 55?

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Unfortunately, what you describe is not a slightly +EV situation.

Here the range of the small blind is huge, possibly any two. If SB's range is the top 60% of his hands your 55 is a 54/46 favorite.

On top of this, you already have 1BB in the pot, you are calling 4BB to win 10BB, so your calling odds are 40%.

Calling with 40% pots odds to win 54% of the time is more than slightly EV+. Fold and you have 4BB. Call and your EV is 5.4BB, a 35% increase.

[rockin]

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Odds of being dealt a pair are about 5%.

[/ QUOTE ]
This factoid shows that you're dangerously misguided in how you think about hand distribution. Assuming this 5% figure is true, it's only useful if your opponent's pushing range is any 2 cards. As someone suggested earlier in the thread, get pokerstove.

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good catch, i just read right over that without it even registering. chances of getting a pair are exactly 1 in 17.

[rockin]

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I am by no means an expert. I am only the messenger. ACCORDING to HOH2 and according to this ONLY. Another expert or another author may recommend different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does Harrington advocate making a fold like this? I think you might be confusing the section where he says the value of low pairs goes down when M's get low because you can't play them for set value any more. I don't think he advocated passing up +cEV calls when you are short-stacked.

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read the whole section, including the examples. this is exactly what he recommends. first in vigourish is about fold equity. if you are calling someone who has already opened the pot, you have almost ZERO fold equity. Keep in mind this is M<5 that we are talking about. It is either push or fold.

[FGators]

1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

[BPA234]

I am not sure that I would place so much value on your assumptions. Further, I would be much more conservative with your stack under the conditions you describe. You have a good stack that affords you the opportunity to later capitalize on better opportunities.

[rockin]

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1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

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think the point was that this is more like 6%. really not a big deal. just seemed like you pulled the 5% out of the air, when it is a simple calculation. i just missed it when i first read it. really not a big deal.