Party 100 vs Kukavica

[shmahappens]

"I call hoping to keep UTG in the hand, UTG calls."

[Ray Zee]

why would you want another player in with you. there is a real chance you might have the best hand with the queen high. and if not likely 15 outs leaving you still the favorite. you want to knock out the sb and play the pot against kuka.

[JeffO]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you want another player in with you. there is a real chance you might have the best hand with the queen high. and if not likely 15 outs leaving you still the favorite. you want to knock out the sb and play the pot against kuka.

[/ QUOTE ]

To increase my implied odds in the event that I did make my flush draw. Of course I could turn or river a Jack or Queen and lose to a bigger one from the UTG player but I thought the extra bet or two that I could make from my flush was worth that risk. Flawed thinking?

[Ikke]

I don't like this play at all.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you want another player in with you. there is a real chance you might have the best hand with the queen high. and if not likely 15 outs leaving you still the favorite. you want to knock out the sb and play the pot against kuka.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not many hands that raise an UTG limper at a full table are worse than Queen high (kuka raises 12% of the time). I think that saying there is a real chance his Queen high is best is a bit of a stretch. Further, against most players, and kuka in particular, your bluffing equity is relatively small here.

I guess the question then becomes twofold - how much additional action do your clean outs get you if two players stay in versus how many outs do you clean up if you do raise here versus the cost of that raise (namely getting three bet by either UTG or kuka).

At the time of OPs flop action there are 7.5SB in the pot. You would have to make some assumptions about how much equity raising gains you here exactly, but relative to the cost of getting three bet and the opportunity cost of a big hand if you do hit makes it at least close in my opinion.

The other thing that makes it close is that this post sat for a while and nobody on the boards questioned the flop play at all. Let's see what people say now.

I think it's close, and arguements can be made for both sides. I have a bit of an advantage here because I know Kuka, but raising here is asking to get three bet, and UTG may fold a better hand with a Q or a J, so you protect the existing pot in that situation somewhat, but on average, your equity is relatively consistent. 15 outs twice, minus a few on average if its three players.

If i had to guess, you have 13 outs on average vs kuka and 11-12 outs on average vs both players. but that's simply an estimated guess.

The bigger the current pot size RELATIVE to future action the more value you get from putting pressure on the third player and "cleaning up" outs.

[JeffO]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this play at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that's some insightful analysis! Great post.

[TStoneMBD]

i agree with the flop call and i dont see much purpose to checkraising as ace high is calling you down.

the turn donk is very interesting imo but i think it looks good mostly because Ax is unlikely to raise your turn bet since you could easily have a 6. so rather than checkcall against ace high you pay the same number of bets while giving yourself some miniscule fold equity.

[Ikke]

Thank you.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you want another player in with you. there is a real chance you might have the best hand with the queen high. and if not likely 15 outs leaving you still the favorite. you want to knock out the sb and play the pot against kuka.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't buy this. You have to think villain is isolating with a very wide range of hands here. I don't know the player, but believing Q-high is the best hand seems doubtful.

If you raise it's mostly for value with a slight equity edge, and in the hopes that UTG will call 2 cold with an ace / pair. You have a tiny bit of fold equity against king-high, but that's about it. All kuka pocket pairs and ace-high hands are certainly going to call / raise.

In light of that, I think the thought process of trying to keep the 3rd guy in the hand since you are definitely behind and unlikely to win unimproved is reasonable. I think a raise is also reasonable as UTG might just call 2 with an ace anyways, so why screw around, but this is a different argument than your hand currently being best. Personally, with so little fold equity, I'd probably tend to call. Against a good player though, this decision is mostly based on which action I think will look least like a flush draw.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you want another player in with you. there is a real chance you might have the best hand with the queen high. and if not likely 15 outs leaving you still the favorite. you want to knock out the sb and play the pot against kuka.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't buy this. You have to think villain is isolating with a very wide range of hands here. I don't know the player, but believing Q-high is the best hand seems doubtful.

If you raise it's mostly for value with a slight equity edge, and in the hopes that UTG will call 2 cold with an ace / pair. You have a tiny bit of fold equity against king-high, but that's about it. All kuka pocket pairs and ace-high hands are certainly going to call / raise.

In light of that, I think the thought process of trying to keep the 3rd guy in the hand since you are definitely behind and unlikely to win unimproved is reasonable. I think a raise is also reasonable as UTG might just call 2 with an ace anyways, so why screw around, but this is a different argument than your hand currently being best. Personally, with so little fold equity, I'd probably tend to call. Against a good player though, this decision is mostly based on which action I think will look least like a flush draw.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, im with the raise camp.

in the chance that a Q/J fall off, UTGs limping range definately includes KJ/KQ/AJ. getting one of those hands to drop is important enough that its worth the extra sb.

further, vs. pairs <J you are a favorite so it's not the end of the world putting in those bets. it's only very expensive vs. >=JJ. and even then you're not that poorly off.

Barron