Huge pot odds good enough for backdoor draws?

luckydonut · #1 05-15-2006, 12:15 PM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (10 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero ...?

My flop call is questionable: one overcard and two backdoor draws but with huge pot odds. The overcard is very likely not good against a 3-bet pre-flop who comes out firing again, so is 19-1 good enough on the backdoors alone, especially as the board is paired?

So then I hit almost perfect, but possibly disasterous, cards on the turn and river. I feel certain that had I hit the flush or a straight without a flush possibility, I'd be raising here, fearing only a very unlikely full house. Apart from JJ in the small blind, I don't really see it.

Do I have any reason to fear a flush here from SB, BB or UTG+1?

bozlax · #2 05-15-2006, 12:20 PM

You're closing the action. HU this might be a raise, but closing the action in a protected pot you're making a crying call.

lautzutao · #3 05-15-2006, 12:26 PM

Getting 19 to 1 I'd say you have enough to peel here on the flop. You're looking at probably 3 outs or so which is reasonable for a call.

I'd raise this river for sure. 0 strength was shown when the flush card fell, SB could be betting a a jack here on this board. There IS the possibility that SB missed his c/r on the turn and is now betting the flush on the river, but seeing how he called a 3bet from the SB preflop I'm going to take a stab and say he probably isn't sophisticated enough to try something like that. So raise here and attempt to collect more bets with the best hand.

sccrneo · #4 05-15-2006, 12:31 PM

Flop call is fine, you have an over(though likely not good) and a backdoor flush and straight draw which gives you enough outs to continue. The turn was about as perfect as you could have hoped for and the check was standard. The river, I think youre ahead and I think I would raise and hope to pick up 3 more BB instead of calling and hoping for 1 BB out of the CO.

Stoo_Pot · #5 05-15-2006, 01:10 PM

I'd think I'd feel like a value raise on the river and hope that SB didn't miss a check raise on the turn with the flush. Alot of dead money from BB and UTG for when you're wrong.

MrWookie · #6 05-15-2006, 01:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're closing the action. HU this might be a raise, but closing the action in a protected pot you're making a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB has 4x, Kx, or some sort of two pair not involving the 4s a lot here. You have the callers beaten every single time. I raise and call.

kerowo · #7 05-15-2006, 01:21 PM

With that many people in pot I don't know that your overcard is any good but the pot is big enough that I don't mind a call.

With a straight draw/flush draw on the turn I'm probably betting here.

I wouldn't be surprised if SB hit his flush and missed a c/r on the turn, but I'd still raise/call this river.

Buzz-cp · #8 05-15-2006, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With that many people in pot I don't know that your overcard is any good but the pot is big enough that I don't mind a call.

With a straight draw/flush draw on the turn I'm probably betting here.

I wouldn't be surprised if SB hit his flush and missed a c/r on the turn, but I'd still raise/call this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes a lot of sense. I think a river raise is good because sometimes he has a 4 or maybe QJ.

Hielko · #9 05-15-2006, 03:52 PM

Easy raise. Normally you have to be sure to have the best hand 55-70% of the time to make a value raise. With two callers in between, you get better odds so it is ok to raise, even when you are good 33% the time.

luckydonut · #10 05-15-2006, 07:43 PM

I wimpily called, and CO called. FWIW, we get to see all five hands...

Final Pot: 15 BB
Main Pot: 15 BB, between Hero, CO, SB, BB and UTG+1. > Pot won by Hero (15 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Tc Ah (two pair, tens and fours).
Hero has As Qc (straight, ace high).
CO has Ad Kd (two pair, kings and fours).
SB has Qs 4d (three of a kind, fours).
BB has Kc 9c (two pair, kings and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 15 BB.