KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????

[gwhiz_612]

I like sinister minister.

[Bill C]

The Derby is always a tough nut to crack, and even more so this year.
Winning this race is a longshot proposition, which one should bear in mind when making any picks. Play it for fun, not as a serious play.
It can help if you have some convictions about the race, and I have two:

1) I want to bet against Lawyer Ron, who I regard as an impetuous front-ender who will push any possible pace.
2) The overall pace will be very very sharp, and I want to bet against all the horses that will be any part of the expected suicidal pace.

So I will throw out any horse that I think will be within 3-4 lengths of the front at the 3/4 or 5/8 pole. That is eleven horses, by my reckoning.
Of the remaining nine, I give four no shot (Showing Up, Bluegrass Cat, Storm Treasure, Seaside Retreat), leaving me with five contenders.

In order of my opinion they are:

Steppenwolfer (30/1)
AP Warrior (15/1)
---------------------
Point Determined (12/1)
Jazil (30/1)
---------------------
Cause to Believe (50/1)

I will have win bets on the top two and exactas using some combinations of the top four.
Also, I plan to include three speed types that may hang on for part of it and use Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek underneath in some trifectas.
As far as I am concerned, SNS is the "wise guy horse" and will be seriously overbet for what he is.

Don't forget the Oaks-Derby Double, which can be very juicy if you can throw out the favorites.
In the Oaks I am interested in Wander Lady Anne L (8/1) and perhaps Wait a While (5/1).

Enjoy the race. Maybe sip a little KY bourbon as they go to post!
bc

[W. Deranged]

This is a hell of a Derby...

In my opinion, it's setting up kind of like 2001 (Monarchos). You have two very gifted speed horses (Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry) pinned down inside right next to each other (the 3 and 4). Sharp Humor is relatively inside as well. The result: I'm thinking a huge speed duel. I loved Sinister Minister coming out of the Bluegrass, but he is striking me as a Millenium Wind type: huge Bluegrass figure, terrible pace scenario =>Derby flop.


That's all I've got for now... I don't think this is going to be won on the front end. I'm still trying to figure out who I think can get up. I do agree that a skilled plodder type like Steppenwolfer or Bob and John should get a pretty good set-up for a piece here, though I'm not convinced either has a chance to win.

[W. Deranged]

My pick is likely going to be Sweetnorthernsaint.

Huge figures coming in. Great pattern. Versatile, and none of the pace or position negatives of the speed guys (Sinister Minister) or the likely favorites (BD, LR).

[3DOGS]

Easy, tri-box point determined/bob and john/a.p. warrior.

[TripleH68]

If I have to pick one horse I pick Brother Derek. I am not a chalk eater, but I do not think you have to look for value in the derby. The exotic pools are so huge anything pays well. Just look at the payouts when FuPeg and Smarty won the race.

Brother Derek has done everything that has been asked of him. You can't fault him for devouring small fields in California. It is a little concerning that he got sucked into the hot pace in the Juvenile, but holding fourth in that race was an accomplishment.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined will be the wise guy horses. They deserve to be and both look to be doing very well coming into the race. I do not think SNS is versatile. His wins have come in races where the pace was soft. He sizzled home in the Illinois derby and he will be on my tickets. PD has been fighting the track bias at Santa Anita and should feel more comfortable at CD.

I do not care much for Lawyer Ron or Steppenwolfer. Can't like Bob and John off that race in the Wood. Barbaro won the Florida derby from the 10 post and may be the speed of the speed. I don't like him to win, but he may be the one holding on for third or fourth. AP Warrior will be on my tickets because of his seasoning.

Good luck all.

[Bill C]

[ QUOTE ]
(snip)
I do agree that a skilled plodder type like Steppenwolfer or Bob and John should get a pretty good set-up for a piece here, though I'm not convinced either has a chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last year before the race, nobody thought Giacomo had a shot. I am looking for horses that "haven't done it yet" but are sitting on a great opportunity. Horses that need to run a better race than any they've shown so far, and are poised to do so tomorrow. (FWIW I bet Giacomo in last yrs Derby).

To me the game, and particularly this race, is not about "picking the winner." It's about finding an opportunity for a score. Players who need to "pick the winner" should head at once for Bro Derek, the most likely winner at this point, and no doubt an underlay.

But for me, I don't want any part of the four shortest prices in this race, as they all have a pretty strong tie-in to the expected hot pace. That means any horses I use will be over 10/1, at least in the morning line, and if you look back at who I like, in my earlier note, I am pretty sure they'll all be over 10/1 at post time, too.

When you bet that kind, you have to be prepared to throw your tickets on the ground and laugh when the race is over. But you also have opened a door to a big hit, and in a situation I consider +EV. (By tossing the top four, one more than makes up for the takeout, assuming he's right.) My horses may run badly tomorrow, and if so, then so what?
It's just one race, just like a poker hand is just one hand in a larger game, and an even larger overall experience.

Have some fun with it tomorrow!

bill c

[MikeSmith]

yeah i was at derby and i didnt bet on the jockey of giacomo mike smith to win and he went off at ridiculous odds.

[W. Deranged]

Triple H,

Bob and John's race in the Wood was much better than it looked, in my opinion. His thorograph figure for it is surprisingly fast (like 0 1/2 or something) largely because I think he lost a ton of ground on the turn.

Compare Brother Derek, who's fast races have come getting dream trips on the rail at a Santa Anita track he obviously adores.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
If I have to pick one horse I pick Brother Derek. I am not a chalk eater, but I do not think you have to look for value in the derby. The exotic pools are so huge anything pays well. Just look at the payouts when FuPeg and Smarty won the race.

Brother Derek has done everything that has been asked of him. You can't fault him for devouring small fields in California. It is a little concerning that he got sucked into the hot pace in the Juvenile, but holding fourth in that race was an accomplishment.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined will be the wise guy horses. They deserve to be and both look to be doing very well coming into the race. I do not think SNS is versatile. His wins have come in races where the pace was soft. He sizzled home in the Illinois derby and he will be on my tickets. PD has been fighting the track bias at Santa Anita and should feel more comfortable at CD.

I do not care much for Lawyer Ron or Steppenwolfer. Can't like Bob and John off that race in the Wood. Barbaro won the Florida derby from the 10 post and may be the speed of the speed. I don't like him to win, but he may be the one holding on for third or fourth. AP Warrior will be on my tickets because of his seasoning.

Good luck all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bro Derek can be faulted for his lack of value and the fact his last 3 races he hasn't gone against 19 horses *combined* much less in one race, much less from the 18 pole.

Everyone is jumping on Point D, so I am jumping off. Still hoping SNSaint is 10-1 or better tomorrow, less than 8-1 and I will avoid, not been training well last 3 days either.

Nobody seems to like Barbaro or Lawyer Ron to win, reminds me of how all the 'experts', not one bet on Smarty Jones. Ron is the most seasoned, has come from off the pace [but not far off] and run a Beyer over 105, a requirement for 8 of last 13 Derby winners - only K. Entry, Derek, SNS and SinMinister can say the same, and KEntry and SinMin are likely throwouts.
All Barbaro does is win, ran 103 last time out, and is most rested horse. 4-1 sucks though, you can get 6.5-1 some places online.
I also like AP Warrior at 18-1 or better and Sharp Humor at 50-1 in many places online to hit the board.

I like Jazil and Steppenwolfer if it rains to hit the board also. Smartest thing tomorrow is to NOT bet to win but box 4 horses Exacta and Trifecta. SNS/APWarrior/LRon/Jazil? Barbaro/Ron/Steppen/BobnJohn on a rainy track? Something like that.

Naj