($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?

[b33nz]

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I don't do math. I go by feeeeeeeelllll, baby.

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you are my twin.

[ilya]

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Don't want him to get of cheap with his AT or KQ. And I won't do the [censored] math. Why don't you do it, you will see that I am clearly right. Clearly.

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lol. you think i care if you understand i'm right or not? i'm just trying to help but if you don't want to be helped well, that's your loss

[Melchiades]

lol

The fact you think this is a trivial math problem is telling. It can be solved mathematically obviously, but it will take a lot of assumptions.

[ilya]

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lol

The fact you think this is a trivial math problem is telling. It can be solved mathematically obviously, but it will take a lot of assumptions.

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i never said it was trivial, i just said that i thought you could definitely do it.

[ilya]

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ilya, telling us that an SNG is clearly superior to a push based on the math and not actually posting the math isnt gonna help prove your point.

you're basically asking everyone here to go and do the math by themselves rather than you just posting it here...

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ok fine you win, here's the math. first we have to give him a range wide enough that pushing preflop is +$EV at all. so, let's put him on 22+/A2+/K4+/Q6+/J7+/T7+/97+/87. Notice that I made this range relatively heavy in dominated hands.
Then:

22+, A2+, K4+, Q6+, J7+, T7+, 97+, 87

SHOVE:

+0.3

stop and go:

on the flop he will fold non-pairs whenever he doens't make a pair

and he will fold pairs never


so, pairs make up 72 combos, he always calls: 35% when he does this

J7+....87 make up 160 combos: 30% when he does have a pair

6 outs 3 times, will get a pair 33% of the time, 55 combos pair 105 combos no pair

Q6+ makes up 72 combos: 40% when he does have a pair

5 outs 3 times, will get a pair 30% of the time, 22 times pair 50 times no pair

K4+ makes up 140 combos: 30% when he does have a pair

6 outs 3 times, pair 33% of the time, 50 pair, 90 no pair

A2+ makes up 141 combos: 40% when he does have a pair

5 outs 3 times, 30% pair, 41 pair 100 no pair


so altogether he has 585 combos

on flop he folds 345 combos

on flop he calls 240 combos

when he calls we have

72*35 + 55*30 + 22*40 + 50*30 + 41*40 = 2520 + 1650 + 880 + 1500 + 1640 = 8190

8190/240 = 34% chance of winning

so 159 times we lose it all

81 times we double up


when we lose it all: 0 equity

when we double up: 31.6% equity

when we take it down: 27.6% equity

159*0 + 31.6*81 + 27.6*345 = 2559.6 + 9522 = 12081.6

12081.6/585 = 20.6%, I.E. +1.6%

vs

EV shove preflop 19.3%, I.E. +0.3%

And this despite the fact that I deliberately made all of my rough equity estimates err on the side that would favor pushing preflop. E.g., I underestimate our equity when opponent flops a pair & overestimate how often he will call on the flop with a pair in the hole.

Note also that BB is short enough that whether we shove or coldcall preflop will have little to no effect on his overpushing range.

[b33nz]

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12081.6/585 = 20.6%, I.E. +1.6%

vs

EV shove preflop 19.3%, I.E. +0.3%

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hmm, so are you saying that a SNG is +1.3% more than just a preflop push? if so, then you seriously screwed up somewhere in the math...

there is no possible way they are this far apart... or else i dont know how to play poker.

we need curtains to answer this hand... hes never wrong, ya know. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[JSH06]

I think it depends on the opponent here. Against tighter opponents I would stop n go here. Against loose aggressive players I would re-raise all in preflop. I am never folding. Youd situation appears to be a loose aggressive opponent so I would push.

[ilya]

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12081.6/585 = 20.6%, I.E. +1.6%

vs

EV shove preflop 19.3%, I.E. +0.3%

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hmm, so are you saying that a SNG is +1.3% more than just a preflop push? if so, then you seriously screwed up somewhere in the math...

there is no possible way they are this far apart... or else i dont know how to play poker.

we need curtains to answer this hand... hes never wrong, ya know. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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i know it seems counterintuitive, but the key here is that there's so much in the pot already once he raises that getting that last thousand in, even as a favorite, isn't worth enough to offset the increased risk of busting.

it's funny that you mention curtains because it was a post of his that initially motivated me to do the math for these kinds of situations. i didn't believe it myself at first, either.

if you still don't believe me, you should do the math yourself. heck, it's not a bad idea to do the math yourself either way. these situations come up fairly often and nothing will help you get a grasp on them like working through the calcs yourself. that's why i was reluctant to post them.

[SABR42]

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on the flop he will fold non-pairs whenever he doens't make a pair

and he will fold pairs never


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I think that's generalizing too much.

For example, is he calling with 4-4 after the flop comes A-Q-10?

Or, is he folding K-J on a flop of 3-3-6 getting decent pot odds? What if he flops a flush draw? He's certainly not folding that with the pot odds on the flop.

I realize calculating all of that would be a pain, but without doing all that can you really provide an accurate EV number for SnG?

[ilya]

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on the flop he will fold non-pairs whenever he doens't make a pair

and he will fold pairs never


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I think that's generalizing too much.

For example, is he calling with 4-4 after the flop comes A-Q-10?

Or, is he folding K-J on a flop of 3-3-6 getting decent pot odds? What if he flops a flush draw? He's certainly not folding that with the pot odds on the flop.

I realize calculating all of that would be a pain, but without doing all that can you really provide an accurate EV number for SnG?

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Fair points, but is he folding A8 or KJ on a flop of Q33 getting those same nice pot odds? Is he folding Q8 on a 733 flop? Is he always calling with 44 on a KT8 flop? I think the generalizations cut both ways.