Typical Situation Math Problem

[Lyric]

We're getting over 2.5-1 on a preflop call. We're 2-1 to flop an A or K, and on flops with an A or K we have approx. 70% equity in the pot against his range.

If he always stacks off against us on any flop, we are about +$285 EV per hand we call then stack off on an A or K high flop, check fold unfavorable flops like 223 or AKQ.
Folding is not an option.

We are a 2.3-1 dog if we move in pre-flop against his range. The pot is offering us a little under 2-1 on our money when we stack off. Re-raising all-in is not an option.

This is not close. We should call and stack off on favorable flops.

If he will always stack off with us on any flop, it is never correct to fold AK pre-flop. As the stack sizes move up it becomes more profitable to call, and as stack sizes move down it becomes profitable to re-raise all-in.

[PokerBot123]

The correct move is to fold. Because we have so little left behind we are essentially being moved in preflop (there is no flop where we would be correct in folding, getting 3-1).

You could only call in this situation with an even smaller stack or a really big stack. Obviously the reason you could call with a big stack is the great implied odds you get in this particular scenario; read: "he will allways move in on the flop".

[eurythmech]

[ QUOTE ]
The correct move is to fold. Because we have so little left behind we are essentially being moved in preflop (there is no flop where we would be correct in folding, getting 3-1).


[/ QUOTE ]

142,560 games 0.219 secs 650,958 games/sec

Board: Qc 9h 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 06.6856 % 06.69% 00.00% { AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 93.3144 % 93.31% 00.00% { QQ+ }

[PokerBot123]

Asumed AK was in villains range. Without AK it's still a fold, but then it's not very close anymore.

[jamazon]

If I wanted to do math, I'll take "Discrete Math." I want to learn how to play better poker. And playing better poker = all-in pre-flop.

[Lucky]

given perameters in this scenario, i fold.

But the 20bb tards will have much wider range than QQ+

[Grisgra]

Memories . . .

Knew this sounded familiar. I think I emailed DS about it at the time, too. Now he's postin' here like it was his idea all the time . . . weaksauce, man! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

EDIT -- yeah, okay, not *exactly* the same question, but pretty close . . .

[Rotating Rabbit]

yawn

Here's another very interesting and relevant scenario;

you find yourself on an alien planet, and they force you to play nl holdem for your life. except this time the stakes really are high in fact you're playing for body parts. given that you wont be able to make it back to your spaceship without your legs, and keeping your head is clearly a priority, its important that you play your hand correctly.

in this 'maths' problem, call&evaluate > push (obviously), so you only have to work out if call&evaluate > fold and the problem is solved.

fold loses 0 from the decision time so thats pretty easy.

2 reasonable plans, either push any A or K flop, or push any A flop. In fact both suck.

1)Pushing any A flop is the easiest to work out, because 75% of the time opponent has QQ-KK on combinations and you will hit your ace c18% of the time and win 1200 (lets say), but unfortunately you're paying 300 to win 1200 and thus its -ev, let alone the times he has AA or hits a set. So that play is -ev.

2) Pushing any A or K flop is actually closer. I did on the back of an envelope not going to reproduce here. So close in fact to be almost 0EV, which is assuming opponent never hits a set. Which makes this pointless because no opponent is going to call an allin with QQ on an AAK board realistically is he. Also I havnt considered sets into the equation, which tilts it to -ev.

Thus call&evaluate < fold. We already said that call&evaluate > push,

Thus fold > call&evaluate > push



now back to that alien planet with you

[yellowbastard]

Correct me if I'm wrong but we are folding all of the following flops..........
A-K-Q
K-Q-x
A-Q-x
And still calling on all of these following flops.......
A-A-Q
K-K-Q
So how do you figure the probabiltiy of all A and K flops that are good for us? In other words, all A and K flops with the exception of A-K-Q, K-Q-x, and A-Q-x, but still including A-A-Q and K-K-Q?

[Flight_Risk]

[ QUOTE ]
yawn

Here's another very interesting and relevant scenario;

you find yourself on an alien planet, and they force you to play nl holdem for your life. except this time the stakes really are high in fact you're playing for body parts. given that you wont be able to make it back to your spaceship without your legs, and keeping your head is clearly a priority, its important that you play your hand correctly.

in this 'maths' problem, call&evaluate > push (obviously), so you only have to work out if call&evaluate > fold and the problem is solved.

fold loses 0 from the decision time so thats pretty easy.

2 reasonable plans, either push any A or K flop, or push any A flop. In fact both suck.

1)Pushing any A flop is the easiest to work out, because 75% of the time opponent has QQ-KK on combinations and you will hit your ace c18% of the time and win 1200 (lets say), but unfortunately you're paying 300 to win 1200 and thus its -ev, let alone the times he has AA or hits a set. So that play is -ev.

2) Pushing any A or K flop is actually closer. I did on the back of an envelope not going to reproduce here. So close in fact to be almost 0EV, which is assuming opponent never hits a set. Which makes this pointless because no opponent is going to call an allin with QQ on an AAK board realistically is he. Also I havnt considered sets into the equation, which tilts it to -ev.

Thus call&evaluate < fold. We already said that call&evaluate > push,

Thus fold > call&evaluate > push



now back to that alien planet with you

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Flight_Risk