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#11
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He's deep stacked. He is most likely raising anything reasonable, i.e. AA-77, AK-AJ, KQ, maybe more. You don't have that great of a read. If you say he is a huge nit (like 12/7) then maybe it's close but "fairly tight" isn't enough.
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#12
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I can tell you for sure this guy is not raising 88 or 77 UTG+1. 99 is possible.
Whatever your definition for 99-AA, AQ+ as raising requirements for UTG+1, that's what I mean by "fairly tight". |
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#13
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I am a fairly tight player and my raising range with villian's stack from EP after a UTG limp is AQs,AK, AA-TT only. JJ is 44.19% against that range. Does it have to be push or fold? Can he just call and check/raise any non A/K flop?
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#14
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Well you are 47% against AA-TT, AQ+ so given the limper and blinds dead money I don't think you have a choice given you likely will not get many more opportunities. Not to mention the fact that no read is that solid after 70 or so hands.
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#15
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Alright, I'm playing devil's advocate here, because I did push after vomiting....
I'm not going to find a better situation than 47% getting the button, first-in-vigorish with late position coming up, and still with 10x the big blind and no antes? I understand what you mean equity-wise, but if we all agree his range IS AA-TT and AQ+, I think part of me would rather push K2o from the CO after it's folded to me than push here. |
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#16
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would a stop and go be a reasonable option as well?
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#17
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[ QUOTE ]
would a stop and go be a reasonable option as well? [/ QUOTE ] He's raising 35% of my stack, he's probably going to call my flop push with any board. |
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#18
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so if he's got AK and the flop is 742 he'll call? if he's got QQ and the flop is AK3 he'll call?
It gives you another chance to win the hand, that's all. If he folds for any reason, I think it's a reasonable option to consider, don't you? |
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#19
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[ QUOTE ]
so if he's got AK and the flop is 742 he'll call? if he's got QQ and the flop is AK3 he'll call? It gives you another chance to win the hand, that's all. If he folds for any reason, I think it's a reasonable option to consider, don't you? [/ QUOTE ] I call 775, and the pot is suddenly 2050, and I have 1300 left to push. I know I wouldn't lay down with almost any board given that situation... to play along, AK, flop three rags, I push, he instacalls. AQ, flop three undercards, I push, he instacalls. any pair, flop one overcard, I push, he instacalls. QQ-TT, flop AKx, he MIGHT very well fold there, but does it happen enough times to justify a stop n go over a push or a fold? That's a very specific circumstance there. I don't think running a stop and go here is a better play than a straight push necessarily, but it's not a bad suggestion in theory. |
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#20
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This isn't close and no vomitting is necessary.
A stop and go sucks because you really want to be all in against AK here preflop, and you will never fold out a better hand on the flop and you will occasionally fold a worse hand. |
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