JTs settle a disagreement with DeathDonkey

[StellarWind]

Easy call versus normal opponents at this level. Some observations on the discussion:

1. As long as the pot is large enough to commit the flush draw to seeing the river, the value of a free card does not depend on the amount of money in the pot. The river card is something you must purchase and it is simply a question of how much immediate value it will cost you.

This assumes that taking a free card does not hurt your chances of winning the pot. If allowing the SB to bet the turn would in some way increase your winning chances (e.g. by killing someone's QJ) then a larger pot actually hurts the free card play.

2. It is true that if you call SB will often not bet the turn for you when you hit. Nevertheless, the field is much more likely to call your turn and river bets if you just called the flop. Reopening the betting looks like a bluff and will be called very liberally. Raising the flop and continuing after the flush hits will scare everyone very badly because one way or the other you've obviously got it.

3. Getting reraised will destroy both the odds on your raise and your implied odds. Taking a free card will also hurt your implied odds because it's an obvious tipoff when you hit on the river.

4. An important reason not to raise for a cheap card is you may get a free one. Even if the flush doesn't come there is a very good chance that overcards won't bet again.

5. If Hero had 87o I think there might be a lot of votes for just calling. It's really a pretty similar situation. Your equity is going to dramatically change with the next card. The only major difference is you are rooting for different cards. Preserve your favorable raising position until you know enough to commit to a course of action.

[ArturiusX]

Where's that "RAR IM A 2P2ER ME RAISE RAR" image when you need it?

[kurosh]

The biggest reason for a call is that SB has an overpair here a large portion of the time and he will be 3-betting, clearing out the field and ruining your equity edge. So, instead of paying one bet and having a bunch of people come along, you are now paying three bets, HU, as a 2-1 underdog.

[newhizzle]

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would anyone consider not raising a set here?


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This is a bad implicit argument. The equity of a set will not change that much on the turn but the equity of a flush draw will.

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ok, so maybe this was a bad example, but my point was that, simalar to playing a set, i would raise the flop because, whether you raise or call here, i think it is unlikely that you will be able to get multiple bets from multiple opponents on the turn (especially if a flush card hits)and i would like to get money in when people are willing to put it in

i dont necessarily agree that raising hurts our implied odds because i think people will slow down in a 4 way pot when a flush card hits anyway, and if SB just has overs, he probably wont bet the turn anyway, not knowing who will bet, you might get put into a situation where you are forced to face the field with 2 cold or go for overcalls

people are likely calling with all kinds of crap on this flop and may not plan to continue on the turn UI, plus if we up the size of the pot maybe people will keep drawing to their gutshot even if a flush card hits

then there is always the possibility of a free card, but that is not the main reason that i like a raise, i just want to get peoples money when they are willing to put it in and while i have an edge and i really dont think that in this particular situation, not raising will allow us to extract any extra bets on the turn or river should we hit, but i could be wrong

[krishan]

I'm a flop raiser.
Krishan

[Wynton]

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An important reason not to raise for a cheap card is you may get a free one. Even if the flush doesn't come there is a very good chance that overcards won't bet again.

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I seriously doubt that there is any chance of getting a free card in this particular situation.

[Wynton]

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It is true that if you call SB will often not bet the turn for you when you hit. Nevertheless, the field is much more likely to call your turn and river bets if you just called the flop. Reopening the betting looks like a bluff and will be called very liberally. Raising the flop and continuing after the flush hits will scare everyone very badly because one way or the other you've obviously got it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a different impression. I think that raising the flop and continuing after the flush card appears is less likely to scare the field than had hero just called the flop.

[Surf]

I raise the flop. Our equity is excellent in a 4way pot even worst-case when pfr has an overpair (which is less likely than overcards IMO, unless there as an unspecified player read). I want to tie players to the pot when they are willing to call multiple bets with no-pair hands, so if I hit on the turn they call with their gutdrawing dead.

Also, if pfr 3bets you usually get a raise in on the big streets when you hit so i'm not too worried about it killing my implied odds.

Surf

[StellarWind]

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An important reason not to raise for a cheap card is you may get a free one. Even if the flush doesn't come there is a very good chance that overcards won't bet again.

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I seriously doubt that there is any chance of getting a free card in this particular situation.

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Do you see the contradiction here? There is plenty happening on this flop beyond the fact that two cards are the same suit. Almost any card in the deck could hit someone hard. And yet you think it is nearly impossible to get a free card when you miss but very hard to raise when you hit?

The truth is they can't see your hand and they must guess how to play the turn. If SB has overcards with a high spade he is actually much more likely to bet the third spade than some scary card that does nothing for him.

Your opponents are not perfect. They will bet when you hit. They will check when you miss. Not always but quite often.

[StellarWind]

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I have a different impression. I think that raising the flop and continuing after the flush card appears is less likely to scare the field than had hero just called the flop.

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Why? If you raise the flop and bet the third spade on the turn you either have the flush or a strong hand that may include a spade.

Sounds pretty scary to me.

If you call the flop and bet when the third spade checks to you then I can clearly deduce that ... it was your turn to bet. You could have anything. AK no spade could easily have outs or even be the best hand. Ditto for all the other guys nursing dribs and drabs. You've made it real easy to hold onto their dreams and that's what gets you paid.