JTs settle a disagreement with DeathDonkey

[jason_t]

First orbit. UTG and MP limp, and I limp along with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] otb. An unknown raises from the SB, the BB calls and everyone else calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets, BB calls, UTG folds, MP calls, I

[ArturiusX]

I think I call here, if we raise and hit on the turn, the action will go check check check bet 2 may fold one may stay along.

If we call, I think our implied odds are fantastic as SB will probably bet again even if its a spade, giving us the opportunity to trap callers.

[tolbiny]

i def call. If sb has qa big pair then you just faced the callers with two bets and might be driving paying customers out while paying 3sbs for your draw.

[Victor]

call. implied odds are better since you can get a big double bet. also, in last position, raising does not clean up any outs. fwiw, i would raise a j or 10 on turn too.

[veganmav]

i was suprised everyone said call..
I was thinking raise, for one you can hit you are raising for value...
for 2 if u dont hit on the turn u can take a free card if u so chose...

but i run good, and play bad

[Spicymoose]

How do we know SB will bet again if a flush card hits? He does have 3 opponents. On top of that, we have 9-15 outs, or somewhere between 36-60% equity in this 4-handed pot. SB is not guaranteed to 3-bet, and even if he does, we still may get another caller (and even then we can cap for value/free card).

[Boquense]

Reraise pf maybe :P

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I call here, if we raise and hit on the turn, the action will go check check check bet 2 may fold one may stay along.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't follow this. Raising does not automatically tell people we have a flush draw. And I don't see how we assume the sb will bet if the flush draw completes.

The main reason I see against raising is the fear that sb will 3-bet. But I think that's relatively unlikely, so I would raise.

[The Bryce]

This is a raise (and it's not even close). I'm surprised that so many high-volume players would call. Some points:

1) As pots become larger it becomes more and more valuable to take "free" (why don't we call them cheap?) cards. This pot is already a pretty fair size.

2) Implied odds inshmied odds. You have limpers chasing right now and a pretty big edge. Getting money in now is going to be a pretty big value play for you. No guarantee that these guys are intending to chase the next street.

3) "Implied odds" continue to suck. The SB (the PFR who lead the flop) will check the turn UI very often.

It's fun to get greedy and dream of the multiway trap on the turn when you spike your flush, but about a million things need to go right in order for this to happen. Raise now and get money in against the chasers. Give yourself the option to check behind if you miss.

[Westley878]

[ QUOTE ]
i was suprised everyone said call..
I was thinking raise, for one you can hit you are raising for value...
for 2 if u dont hit on the turn u can take a free card if u so chose...

but i run good, and play bad

[/ QUOTE ]

I am also surprised some people on here suggested call. To be honest, not only have I never called in this situation on the flop, Ive never even considered the idea of calling in this spot. Raising seems so much like the obvious right play that I almost feel like I'm missing something here.

With 3 people committed on the flop, and the reality that the hero is either a 2-1 underdog to make the best hand on the river(assuming the raiser has JJ and above) or the hero may have 15 live outs and be a slight favorite if the raiser has AK,AQ,KQ,99, and the hero may also have 12 outs if the raiser has TT. In all 3 scenarios, the hero is getting 3-1 odds on his raise and he is much less than a 3-1 underdog here, meaning the hero makes a lot of money off this raise in the long run. Yes I know the PFR may reraise here, but even this is not necessarily a bad event. Sometimes both people in the middle or even one person in the middle will call, and we can still cap for value. Also If we knew the PFR had 99 or TT and we also knew that he would 3 bet our raise every time in this spot, raising the flop would still be the best play since this line would increase the hero's probability of winning this already large pot by a small yet very significant percentage.

There are so many strategic advantages to raising here, that I honestly think calling here is a bad play. Another thing, If I did raise the flop and everyone just called, I would bet the turn again even if I knew I couldnt win the pot with this bet just in case the raiser has a hand like ATs,KJs,KTs,AJ and will fold to a turn bet.

Also, If my flop raise is reraised by the raiser, I am capping always if I believe I can get a free card or when im getting 2-1 or more odds on my cap.

I also dont buy the argument of just calling the flop to not kill our implied odds should we hit the turn.....Like Ive already mentioned, this pot has already reached a big size once the action is on the hero(approx 13 small bets) If raising the flop will increase the hero's chance of winning this nice pot by even a small percertage, this factor alone trumps any strategy that may win the hero a large pot if he hits. I am convinced that a flop raise will indeed increase the hero's probability of winning this pot.

Also, the hero may still make more money by raising the flop, since there is no guarantee that the flop bettor or two callers will call the turn if a spade hits, but they do have their money in right now on the flop, so take their money while you still have a chance, and if you hit your flush, you may induce one or more of them to call you down drawing dead becuz you made the pot even bigger by raising the flop.