Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6

[Gurravasa]

To analyze this I start to think about how often our hand is good by the river here. If we believe the stats given it can't be very often, I would guess JJ is good about 5% by the river when we take our decision on the turn.

The good thing is that our outs is probably clean. The Jc gives us the nuts and a FD is not that likely so the Js will win the pot like 90-95% i reckon. If we only draw to our J outs and intend to fold UI on river we clearly don't get the odds we need. What if we plan to call river UI? I put the expected pot size (our second bet on turn and bets on river excluded) to 15BB. Then JJ needs to be good 8% against theese two players on the river. Given the action, player stats and the possible redraws that can hurt us, I don't think we can proceed.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
To analyze this I start to think about how often our hand is good by the river here. If we believe the stats given it can't be very often, I would guess JJ is good about 5% by the river when we take our decision on the turn.

The good thing is that our outs is probably clean. The Jc gives us the nuts and a FD is not that likely so the Js will win the pot like 90-95% i reckon. If we only draw to our J outs and intend to fold UI on river we clearly don't get the odds we need. What if we plan to call river UI? I put the expected pot size (our second bet on turn and bets on river excluded) to 15BB. Then JJ needs to be good 8% against theese two players on the river. Given the action, player stats and the possible redraws that can hurt us, I don't think we can proceed.

[/ QUOTE ]


If one is drawing and the other gets gun-shy with just a T then there's a chance that an A or K on the river would end up getting checked-around for a free-showdown.

Not saying it's a guarantee or anything. But I've been including some weird drawing possibilities for the last player and if that's the case I don't think he's going to fire a bluff at the end against 2 opponents.

So I still think we're close to being able to call.
But that dude raising with a 0.3AF is still pissing me off so I really don't know.

[QuietEarner]

Sorry guys for the delayed response here. Been at work. I feel a little better about the fold atleast since there are some people who say fold, but seems like the majority say call it down.

In case anyone was wondering SB showed AA, and Button showed 22 for the set. So I guess I made the right decesion on this instance, but still a little unsure for the long run. Seems like the call then fold UI (to the set) is the line I like the best depending on the betting on the river.

[Gurravasa]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry guys for the delayed response here. Been at work. I feel a little better about the fold atleast since there are some people who say fold, but seems like the majority say call it down.

In case anyone was wondering SB showed AA, and Button showed 22 for the set. So I guess I made the right decesion on this instance, but still a little unsure for the long run. Seems like the call then fold UI (to the set) is the line I like the best depending on the betting on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must believe that you'll see a lot of free SD if you like that line best.