Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Only 50 hands in at the table SB is running 12/10/2.3 so far (His lead out on turn I found weird too). Button is running 40/1.9/0.3 (He's the one that worries me, cold call 2 bets on flop, then raises turn). My thinking was 2 guys making weird plays, someone hit the flop or turn hard.
I'm saying all pocket pairs are major part of both villains ranges.

Yes I should have capped PF. No good reason I didn't, just a donkey.

Oink, flamming allowed on this one if necessary.

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero folds.

River: (13.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

if button's 0.3 AF is over a long sample, then i think you made a good fold.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

This seems pretty bad imo.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

This pot is too big to fold, especially since the button might only have 2 pair here.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
This pot is too big to fold, especially since the button might only have 2 pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah, but you still only have 2 outs vs. the SB's QQ-AA, and your normal counterfeit "outs" aren't yours.

I think the way you played this hand, the turn fold is good.

But you should have capped PF.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Well I would have raised the turn to begin with. This is Tx or worse a lot. Plus if the other guy is incline to call 2 with a worse hand again that's good.

I actually think it's pretty close when you call and BT raises. If the sample is large enough, I might find a fold (would have to do some math might be call-fold UI). This line is a slowplayed set a lot. If we're talking about 100-300 hands though, I'm calling down.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Does the lead out on the turn, after he called the raise on flop worry you at all? The reasoning for calling the turn was, Button just called 2 cold, SB called then leads. I was like ok one weird line no big deal, but two weird lines something isn't right. Just me probably thinking to much.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

I've seen some 0.3AF types makes some slightly weird raises before. And obviously he can be cold-calling PF with a fairly wide-range given his 40/2-ness.
So I'm thinking that it's possible for him to get frisky here with 9s7s or Js9s on the turn. Or even something silly like AT or As8s.
It could even be something as ridiculous as 32 or 43 in which case you have plenty of outs.

I just can't trust a guy with such passive stats to be choosing the right times to slow-play or raise because he's already so ridiculous.

This might be calling-station-monkeyish of me though.
With an AF of 0.3 there's a decent chance you are just drawing to your 2-outer obviously.

But even if the chances of your JJ only having 2 outs are fairly large it still means you have a 23 to 1 shot and are getting pot-odds of 13:1. Not enough odds on its own to warrant a call of course but at least it's something and when you combine that with the slim chance that you are still ahead and/or drawing to outs to counterfeit a 2-pair somewhere in there and I think a call is okay.

Also, when the SB donks the turn I think I'm raising again here.

It's a weird hand and I think you can hardly be blamed for folding given the dude's AF but I might be able to make enough excuses to spew some more of my chips to him.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does the lead out on the turn, after he called the raise on flop worry you at all? The reasoning for calling the turn was, Button just called 2 cold, SB called then leads. I was like ok one weird line no big deal, but two weird lines something isn't right. Just me probably thinking to much.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, that's a bit weird too. Not sure what to make of that unless he thinks you might be on flush-draw or overcards perhaps. Was timid at first and didn't want to 3-bet with his JT or something...and then changed his mind and decided to bet out again at it.

Some of the donk-bets out there come with some weird reasons/logic. If you think too much about them they can confuse you perhaps more than they were even trying to.

He also could just be multi-tabling on too many tables and lost track of what had happened in that hand or something. For a 12/10 super-nit, even after only 50 hds, I'm guessing that this is possible.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]

But even if the chances of your JJ only having 2 outs are fairly large it still means you have a 23 to 1 shot and are getting pot-odds of 13:1. Not enough odds on its own to warrant a call of course but at least it's something and when you combine that with the slim chance that you are still ahead and/or drawing to outs to counterfeit a 2-pair somewhere in there and I think a call is okay.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thinking about this some more:
Lets say there's an 80% chance someone else has a set or overpair here and you're drawing to 2 outs.

Maybe a 5% chance your JJ is still ahead here and you're trying to dodge their combined outs of which they have perhaps 15 or so.

And 15% chance that you have additional outs via a counterfeited 2-pair so maybe roughly 5 outs in such situations considering you don't know which outs those are and some of the time something that might have been an out will actually be giving somebody else a full-house and that will usually cost you.

So at:
80% is 2 outs
15% is 5 outs
you are already close to a 3-outer on average which is starting to get close to the pot-odds you are already getting.
3/46 = 6.5%
1/13 = 7.6%

Tack on as low as a 5% chance that your JJ is somehow still ahead here and that probably swings it to a call I think.

This might be some really generous workings on the numbers though. But it goes to show how sure you need to be to make such a lay-down in a large pot.