NL25 - easy fold??

[kroeliewoelie]

if we cbet 2/3 pot, then we break even by inducing folds if he folds

p*13 -(1-p)*8.7 = 21.7*p -8.7=0 --> p=0.4

if he only holds AK, QQ+, then these are 16+6+6+6=34 holdings. Assuming he will only call with AdKd and QQ+ and not with backdoor draws, he will fold 15 of these, which is 44% of his range. So even then it might be slightly profitable to cbet. This is assuming total rational behaviour of course. Which I find a doubtful assumption, so adding to that that we're out of position, I would fold to 4bet preflop. It's marginal at best post flop.