NL25 - easy fold??

[ama0330]

One thing that is definite is that you cant "just call". You have to either push all in or fold.

Given the preflop action I think it is safe to assume that he either has a monster (like a big pair) or air (like AJ/AK/AQ). An argument could be made for pushing just on the small size of his bet but given how unpredictable these players are with their bet sizing, it doesnt tell us too much.

Remember also that if he has AKdd then you're actually behind. I think I can just fold this one and move on. He only has a 4.5pfr, which means that his 3betting range is likely to be pretty small.

[kroeliewoelie]

I am struggling with these situations also, after the first replies suggest to donk this flop, the later ones suggest c/f.

But against a range of the other JJ combo, QQ+, AQ, AK you still have like 50% equity. If you are not planning on betting this flop (hoping to take the pot down), then you aren't basically betting any flop without a J.

I read somewhere else that you need to make about 11.6 times your initial investment to justify calling for setvalue. Since you call the 4bet for $2.5, you need to make $30 dollars on average. I think this unrealistic, so then I should suggest folding to 4bet preflop is better.

[monkover]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that is definite is that you cant "just call". You have to either push all in or fold.

Given the preflop action I think it is safe to assume that he either has a monster (like a big pair) or air (like AJ/AK/AQ). An argument could be made for pushing just on the small size of his bet but given how unpredictable these players are with their bet sizing, it doesnt tell us too much.

Remember also that if he has AKdd then you're actually behind. I think I can just fold this one and move on. He only has a 4.5pfr, which means that his 3betting range is likely to be pretty small.

[/ QUOTE ]


do you advise calling preflop though?
you can´t do it for set value obv...

[ama0330]

Preflop is close. I would call if I thought there was a chance my Jacks were good, but I wouldn't just call for set value. Obviously pretty read dependant.

[IAGTTAYM]

You flop a set 1:8.5.
BB starts the hand with 23.90, if we estimate that we get 75% of his stack every time we flop the set: (23.9*0.75 + 4.5)/(2.5)=8.97
Depending on how sure Im about villains 3-betting range in this situation, calling preflop for pure set value could be ok, but its close either way.

[kindergartencop]

how bad is c/c and see if he fires turn again? villian bet tiny, i agree with ama he either has a big pair or ak/aq air type hands. with this low of an af and such a small flop bet can we call and reevaluate turn here ever?

[kroeliewoelie]

if we cbet 2/3 pot, then we break even by inducing folds if he folds

p*13 -(1-p)*8.7 = 21.7*p -8.7=0 --> p=0.4

if he only holds AK, QQ+, then these are 16+6+6+6=34 holdings. Assuming he will only call with AdKd and QQ+ and not with backdoor draws, he will fold 15 of these, which is 44% of his range. So even then it might be slightly profitable to cbet. This is assuming total rational behaviour of course. Which I find a doubtful assumption, so adding to that that we're out of position, I would fold to 4bet preflop. It's marginal at best post flop.

[orig!naL]

[ QUOTE ]
if we estimate that we get 75% of his stack every time we flop the set

[/ QUOTE ]

I like what you did here, but I want to point out I really think this only applies in 3 and 4-bet pots. If you are calling a single pf raise with a pair and hit your set, its not accurate to assume on average you will get 75% of the persons stack (unless of course its some aggro calling station).

Back to the hand. I don't mind a fold to the 4-bet. It's a little unpredictable, but I doubt you are ahead here enough to make this +EV. As played, fold flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is close. I would call if I thought there was a chance my Jacks were good, but I wouldn't just call for set value. Obviously pretty read dependant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something here ? Preflop is easy call for set value only. He has to win about 22$ from the pot and only has to invest 2.5$ more. Even if villain is holding AK it`s +EV IMO.

[ABCofPKR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is close. I would call if I thought there was a chance my Jacks were good, but I wouldn't just call for set value. Obviously pretty read dependant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something here ? Preflop is easy call for set value only. He has to win about 22$ from the pot and only has to invest 2.5$ more. Even if villain is holding AK it`s +EV IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]


thats what I thought when I was playing the hand... just $2.5 in a big pot... btw, I continue folding on the flop...