Live Turn Checkraise

[Ricks]

Assuming you must hit your draw to win a showdown and if they do not fold the turn one or both will go to showdown.

If you just call the turn and win 2 bets on the river when you hit, your EV is:

(8/46*14.5)+(38/46-1) = +2.35

If you win only 1 bet on the river:

(8/46*13.5)+(38/46-1) = +2.17

If they will both fold to your turn raise 5% of the time. When one or both do not fold you will win 2 BB more if you hit your draw, your EV is:

(.05*12.5)+(.95*8/46*14.5)+(.95*38/46*-2) = +1.45

If you will win 3 BB more:

(.05*12.5)+(.95*8/46*15.5)+(.95*38/46*-2) = +1.61

If you will win 4 BB more:

(.05*12.5)+(.95*8/46*16.5)+(.95*38/46*-2) = +1.78


If they fold 10% of the time:

(.10*12.5)+(.90*8/46*14.5)+(.90*38/46*-2) = +2.03

(.10*12.5)+(.90*8/46*15.5)+(.90*38/46*-2) = +2.19

(.10*12.5)+(.90*8/46*16.5)+(.90*38/46*-2) = +2.34