Live Turn Checkraise

[Rico Suave]

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BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

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Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

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I am surprised no one has yet commented on these numbers. I actually calculated the target as 6.7% using similar assumptions, but either way the % where both have to fold is pretty small. So perhaps it is debateable, I don't think the turn raise is spew.

--Rico