Live Turn Checkraise

[fishyak]

My only concern is that this board is so disconnected that your c/r looks too much like a play, even if your image is good. If I am the Button, the most you get from me is a call now and a call down on the river. I have the position to see if you are for real or not.

The c/r is a powerful tool and I would have chosen to unleash it AFTER I fill my belly buster straight which would be a fairly stealthly hand on this board.

And, if you miss on the river, you potentially save a BB as well. I vote to hold off on the c/r.

[BigBadBabar]

james - i think this is total spew [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[James.]

BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

[BigBadBabar]

james - i wasn't being sarcastic...?

it seems like he has a big hand that he's not going to fold and we're just charging ourselves for our big (well disguised) draw that could pay off well if we hit it

[TheCount212]

Ditto. You must be psychic and know the K is coming. Barring that, this line is maniacal.

[f97tosc]

[ QUOTE ]
BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

[/ QUOTE ]


Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw most live players are utterly incapable of making this delayed turn raise with AA/QQ. they would just cap the flop.

[ProfessorBen]

I will post the analysis tomorrow, but what I'm starting to tell people is that if your play is so read based and so strong, just do it without having to post/ask.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
I will post the analysis tomorrow, but what I'm starting to tell people is that if your play is so read based and so strong, just do it without having to post/ask.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not that read based. just seeing a decent spot versus someone that can fold often enough for it to show profit. not to mention there are ancillary benefits to this if it somehow gets showndown.

edit to say: i mean, it's obviously based on a read, but not a very, very specific one. i'm just taking advantage of my image, how i'm running, and how i'm percieved by this player as well as this player's postflop tendencies.

[Rico Suave]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

[/ QUOTE ]


Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am surprised no one has yet commented on these numbers. I actually calculated the target as 6.7% using similar assumptions, but either way the % where both have to fold is pretty small. So perhaps it is debateable, I don't think the turn raise is spew.

--Rico