Is this a good prop bet ?

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dueces or aces have equal chances of flopping. the muck doesnt go back into the deck.

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True.

But his point was that if a flop is actually seen, the chances are higher that someone actually has an Ace in their hand and is therefore less likely that one will come out on the flop than a card, such as a deuce, that people are less likely in general to have.
This is not based on probability, but based on knowing the tendancies of the majority of players. If no flop is seen, then it's likely that all four Aces are still in the deck and therefore more likely that one will be flopped.


But as was said, it makes a small impact and would only make a difference it the two outcomes were both closer to 50% likely. On the safe side it's better avoid cards that people are more likely to see flops with, but it won't make a difference in this case.