Is this a good prop bet ?

[Elandriel]

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jimmy are you serious, please show us the math that makes dueces more likely to flop than aces

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I think he just explained why, and also told it didn't have a big impact.

[im a model]

dueces or aces have equal chances of flopping. the muck doesnt go back into the deck.

[JustBeginning]

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dueces or aces have equal chances of flopping. the muck doesnt go back into the deck.

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True.

But his point was that if a flop is actually seen, the chances are higher that someone actually has an Ace in their hand and is therefore less likely that one will come out on the flop than a card, such as a deuce, that people are less likely in general to have.
This is not based on probability, but based on knowing the tendancies of the majority of players. If no flop is seen, then it's likely that all four Aces are still in the deck and therefore more likely that one will be flopped.


But as was said, it makes a small impact and would only make a difference it the two outcomes were both closer to 50% likely. On the safe side it's better avoid cards that people are more likely to see flops with, but it won't make a difference in this case.

[im a model]

i wholly disagree. well at least in no limit. if someone has an ace or two aces, they are going to raise it and you are less likely to see a flop because everyone else may fold. so the flop that is not happening because of the guy with aces raising, is the same flop that is more likely to have a deuce. so the deuces are being flopped less often because when the deuce has the advantage on the flop (because the guy has aces in the whole), that flop isnt being seen.

[jogsxyz]

No point in arguing this point. There must be many of you who have seen millions of flops stored in poker utilities. Just write a program to count the aces and deuces.

[TheChad]

bump jimmyfingers, good post

[btmagnetw]

[ QUOTE ]
bump jimmyfingers, good post

[/ QUOTE ]no it wasn't. the effect would be <0.1% if any at all. and there's reason for both sides. do you see flops more when aces are dealt because these hands enter pots or do you see less flops because these hands raise and end things preflop?