I'm paranoid that I'm folding too much

[bozlax]

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So when b/f'ing is no good and c/c'ing is only good if he is very agressive why not go for the neutral ev play?

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Who said b/f was no good? I'm sure as hell not calling a raise. Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play.

Dude, you're not firing the last barrel on the river UI if you're called on the turn. But if you don't fire on the turn in this situation, you're just begging people to limp in against you and wait for you to miss the flop and bet into you on the turn.

[kaby]

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Who said b/f was no good? I'm sure as hell not calling a raise.

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I did, in a kinda long post that you seem to ignore [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img], because betting is not for value and we don't fold out better hands, thus betting is -ev.

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Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play.

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please elaborate? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Btw I never said b/f was neutral EV i think it's negative ev ... c/f is neutral ev



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Dude, you're not firing the last barrel on the river UI if you're called on the turn. But if you don't fire on the turn in this situation, you're just begging people to limp in against you and wait for you to miss the flop and bet into you on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not against firing again on the turn, i'm against firing on this flop&turn because of the cards ... our equity is a lot higher on like a 27J6r board, there I'd fire again.

Also, do you agree or disagree that betting is -ev? If you agree, are you seriously saying we should make a -ev play at .25/.50 for metagame purposes? If you disagree, could you please point out where my pokerstove post is wrong?

[bozlax]

Ok, this is wearing thin, so I'll try just one more time. We don't have a read, so in order for betting the flop and then check/folding the turn to be correct your default read on a .25/.50 player that posts in MP2 and then checks when folded to preflop has to include two things:

1. He won't call a bet on the flop without hitting the flop. (Note that if he'll call with any sort of draw, you're ahead way more than you're behind.)

2. He won't bet the turn if checked to without a made hand.

So, forget the math. You don't have enough information to put any meaningful math to it.

Now I'm done.

[NIX]

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I'm not against firing again on the turn, i'm against firing on this flop&turn because of the cards ... our equity is a lot higher on like a 27J6r board, there I'd fire again.

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I'd be more likely to fire again on the board in the OP than on the 27J6 board. Reason being that in the OP, there are a ton of hands that are worse than you that may call. Random heart draws that haven’t paired up, backdoor club draws that peeled and got their flush draw, gutshot/lower straight draws that haven’t got there yet, such as J7/T7/T6/76/75/65, or ace high hands. On your board, the only real hands that will call and are behind are again the ace high hands as well as straight draws with T9/T8/98. Everything else that called the flop is ahead.


Going along with your PokerStove post, if you have Villain on that range, I still like a bet. I agree that it isn’t exactly +EV, but I think it’s less –EV than check/folding. Yes, I agree that if he called the flop with a made hand, he’s probably calling the turn with a made hand as well, but there is a slight chance to fold out some better hands by betting, like 3x or 44-66 may fold now. Even if they don’t, we can’t check/fold because we have about 4:1 pot odds against a range that we are only behind 2:1 against. If we then check, it’s with the intention of calling if Villain bets every time. Problem is, a lot of the hands Villain will bet are ahead of us, and he may check behind with a lot of his draws, giving him a free card. Doing this pretty much let’s Villain get exactly what he wants with bets going in when he’s more than likely ahead (or bluffing) and not going in when he’s drawing.

[Bruce D]

You have to bet the flop and the turn for the times that villian will showdown an ace high hand, and for those times that, in this particular case, will call a heart draw, or on the turn a club draw.

[mojobluesman]

This is too weak. You usually have to follow through on the turn.

[kaby]

Thx nix. What's your line for the river if I may ask (I'm assuming a bet if you hit)? (blank falls, straight draw falls, heart blank falls, heart straight draw falls).

I think I get it now, while we never win money on the turn or the river, by c/f'ing the turn we auto-lose 33% of 3BB (1BB).

By betting the turn we lose .34BB and on the river we lose something like .25BB. However, we keep our 33% equity of what will be (and here I'm lost, do I have to count my own bets that go in on the turn&river too?) a 5 or 7 BB pot. So that's 33% of 5= 1.66BB - .34BB -.25BB = 1BB. Going to showdown gets us 1BB while folding the turn gets us 0, thus we GTSD?

The math might be a little off but the idea is that as long as equity you give up by folding > the losses you make on later streets by getting to showdown, you should get to showdown? Is this what you meant with Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play. bozlax?

So then the question is what's the best way to get to showdown and that's ofc b/f (folding doesn't get us to showdown but if he raises us his range narrows to pairs and we have no odds for our 6 outer so np) because like nix clearly said c/c gives villain a free card when we are ahead and we still loose 1BB when behind.

At the river we have 5:1 odds so we call every river card but the Th? Or is it more complicated?

Thx for the input guys I feel like I'm learning here ^-^ - I hope I'm correct

[Second Toughest]

I think clearly you should have bet/ folder the turn. As you didn't I still think it's probably worth calling down.

Below is some shoddy math to back up where I'm coming from.

Lets assume that villain will call river bet, therefore final winnings will be 5.1BB.

If you are behind you have 6 outs, giving odds of 6.7:1 (or 1/7.7). If you win you get 5.1/7.7 = 0.66BB. If you loose you get 6.7/7.7 * -1=-0.87, giving you expected value of 0.66 -0.87 = -0.21.

If you are ahead, lets assume (quite conservatively) that you will still be ahead at showdown 70% of the time. Your expected winnings would be (70%*5.1) + (30% * -2as it would cost you 2BB) = +2.97

So, if you think you are only ahead 10% of the time here your combined expected value is (10% * 0.29) + (90% * -0.21) = +0.1BB. i.e. +ve EV from calling in this situation.

If you'd led the turn you could factor in the semi bluff benefit too.

[NIX]

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Thx nix. What's your line for the river if I may ask (I'm assuming a bet if you hit)? (blank falls, straight draw falls, heart blank falls, heart straight draw falls).

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If I catch a king or an ace, I’m bet/folding again, although that does leave me the chance of folding the better hand if he pairs the river with a busted heart draw (if he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for example). If a blank falls or if the board pairs, I’m check/calling, hoping to pick off a bluff. If the 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] come off, I’m check/folding. Just about anything else, I hate it, but I’d probably check/call, although I tend to showdown too much. With the only read being he’s aggressive enough to attempt blind steals, I would give him enough credit to attempt some bluffs.

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The math might be a little off but the idea is that as long as equity you give up by folding > the losses you make on later streets by getting to showdown, you should get to showdown? Is this what you meant with Also, bet-fold is not EV neutral, because you're giving up equity; fold pf is the only truly 0EV play. bozlax?

So then the question is what's the best way to get to showdown and that's ofc b/f (folding doesn't get us to showdown but if he raises us his range narrows to pairs and we have no odds for our 6 outer so np) because like nix clearly said c/c gives villain a free card when we are ahead and we still loose 1BB when behind.

At the river we have 5:1 odds so we call every river card but the Th? Or is it more complicated?

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The reason that bet/folding isn’t 0EV is that unless Villain has a hand we are drawing dead against (JT, a set, or two pair), we have some equity in the pot, and I don’t think there is any way you can put Villain on two pair or better from the PF/flop action and any reasonable turn action. If we fold, we forfeit that equity.

To go along with your first quoted statement, I look at it like this. Going off the range you gave before, Hero is 36% (or just about 2:1) to win the hand on the turn. With ~3BB in the pot on the turn, our odds to showdown are 5:2 if a bet goes in on every street. Therefore, we should look to showdown. Against an aggressive opponent, this is usually done by check/calling the turn and river. However in this hand, we’ve shown that betting the turn is better than check/calling, since it’s better for money to go in when you’re ahead and behind than just when you’re behind (AaronW has said this in other posts). Then, you can check/call the river since so few worse hands would call a river bet making betting the river UI pointless.

Finally, it’s actually 6:1 to call on the river if Villain bets. Again, I’m calling just about any river, but you or others could make a case for a better range to call against.

[kaby]

Ok nix I understand it now, thx a lot for your patient explanation.

I agree with your river line btw