Never fold KK preflop, right?!?!?

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.266% 34.40% 01.87% 780877512 42348168.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 27.447% 24.14% 03.31% 289868544 39705784.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 22.941% 18.55% 04.39% 164798064 38976024.00 { KK }


[/ QUOTE ]

If the other two are all in, the pot will be $1,149, and I will have to put in $551 to get to showdown. If I go all in too, the pot will be $1,700. In other words, I am risking $551 to win a $1,700 pot (actually $1,697 after the rake). So, I need equity of 32.47% to make this shove.

I have that much equity in your first range of hands. And, I think their range is at least that. However, there is another problem. If I shove, SB can now play perfectly and probably won't go in with anything less than QQ (and maybe nothing less than KK). Shouldn't that be a factor as well?

I'm starting to think that calling in this type of situation is normally high variance with close to neutral EV... that is, unless we put our opponents on higher hand ranges. I think in this case, we can put at least one of our opponents on a broader hand range.

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.266% 34.40% 01.87% 780877512 42348168.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 27.447% 24.14% 03.31% 289868544 39705784.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 22.941% 18.55% 04.39% 164798064 38976024.00 { KK }


[/ QUOTE ]

If the other two are all in, the pot will be $1,149, and I will have to put in $551 to get to showdown. If I go all in too, the pot will be $1,700. In other words, I am risking $551 to win a $1,700 pot (actually $1,697 after the rake). So, I need equity of 32.47% to make this shove.

I have that much equity in your first range of hands. And, I think their range is at least that. However, there is another problem. If I shove, SB can now play perfectly and probably won't go in with anything less than QQ (and maybe nothing less than KK). Shouldn't that be a factor as well?

I'm starting to think that calling is just high variance with close to neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]



yeah if SB is any good he's going to have exactly AA when he calls. and MP realistically QQ+, MAYBE KK+. if you want a project, figure out what % sb has AA out of a 4-bet range of AA-JJ, AK. then that % you get whatever pot odds in a 3-way all in vs AA and AA-QQ,AKs (suited just to represent that sometimes hell shove over w AK, but usually hell fold). then the % he doesnt have AA, youre getting some dead money and are facing just a range of AA-QQ,AKs HU. i have a feeling that makes the situation a good bit better

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.266% 34.40% 01.87% 780877512 42348168.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 27.447% 24.14% 03.31% 289868544 39705784.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 22.941% 18.55% 04.39% 164798064 38976024.00 { KK }


[/ QUOTE ]

If the other two are all in, the pot will be $1,149, and I will have to put in $551 to get to showdown. If I go all in too, the pot will be $1,700. In other words, I am risking $551 to win a $1,700 pot (actually $1,697 after the rake). So, I need equity of 32.47% to make this shove.

I have that much equity in your first range of hands. And, I think their range is at least that. However, there is another problem. If I shove, SB can now play perfectly and probably won't go in with anything less than QQ (and maybe nothing less than KK). Shouldn't that be a factor as well?

I'm starting to think that calling is just high variance with close to neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]



yeah if SB is any good he's going to have exactly AA when he calls. and MP realistically QQ+, MAYBE KK+. if you want a project, figure out what % sb has AA out of a 4-bet range of AA-JJ, AK. then that % you get whatever pot odds in a 3-way all in vs AA and AA-QQ,AKs (suited just to represent that sometimes hell shove over w AK, but usually hell fold). then the % he doesnt have AA, youre getting some dead money and are facing just a range of AA-QQ,AKs HU. i have a feeling that makes the situation a good bit better

[/ QUOTE ]


28% of the time sb has AA-KK and you have 16% equity 3 ways. 72% of the time you get sb's dead money and get it in with 52% equity headsup

[FireStorm]

4th bet isn't always AA anymore, obviously. Back then, probably. Here, probably.

One has to wonder, if you can't reason for a fold here, apparently you never can unless you're insanely deep. I can't imagine one buy in facing more heat preflop.

I think this is a fold, I don't think MP is doing this light against the SB's move, or with AK often enough to justify getting your stack in. I really don't think he ever has QQ here either.

[Superman26gt]

[ QUOTE ]
4th bet isn't always AA anymore, obviously. Back then, probably . Here, probably.

One has to wonder, if you can't reason for a fold here, apparently you never can unless you're insanely deep. I can't imagine one buy in facing more heat preflop.

I think this is a fold, I don't think MP is doing this light against the SB's move, or with AK often enough to justify getting your stack in. I really don't think he ever has QQ here either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Words like these should not be allowed in discussions, they don't help in proving anything.

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.266% 34.40% 01.87% 780877512 42348168.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 27.447% 24.14% 03.31% 289868544 39705784.00 { KK }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 22.941% 18.55% 04.39% 164798064 38976024.00 { KK }


[/ QUOTE ]

If the other two are all in, the pot will be $1,149, and I will have to put in $551 to get to showdown. If I go all in too, the pot will be $1,700. In other words, I am risking $551 to win a $1,700 pot (actually $1,697 after the rake). So, I need equity of 32.47% to make this shove.

I have that much equity in your first range of hands. And, I think their range is at least that. However, there is another problem. If I shove, SB can now play perfectly and probably won't go in with anything less than QQ (and maybe nothing less than KK). Shouldn't that be a factor as well?

I'm starting to think that calling is just high variance with close to neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]



yeah if SB is any good he's going to have exactly AA when he calls. and MP realistically QQ+, MAYBE KK+. if you want a project, figure out what % sb has AA out of a 4-bet range of AA-JJ, AK. then that % you get whatever pot odds in a 3-way all in vs AA and AA-QQ,AKs (suited just to represent that sometimes hell shove over w AK, but usually hell fold). then the % he doesnt have AA, youre getting some dead money and are facing just a range of AA-QQ,AKs HU. i have a feeling that makes the situation a good bit better

[/ QUOTE ]


28% of the time sb has AA-KK and you have 16% equity 3 ways. 72% of the time you get sb's dead money and get it in with 52% equity headsup

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to assume for purposes of calculating that your statement that "SB has AA-KK 28% of the time" is correct. However, please tell me how you determined that.

Also, I realized the BB put in $6 as well. So, in my analysis below, I'll add $6 to the total pot amount.

I now calculate as follows:

Situation #1: If SB has KK-AA, then my EV on that situation is (.16 * $1,703) - $551 = -$278.52. Multiply that by the chance of this occuring, and I get -$77.99 EV.

Situation #2: If SB does not have KK-AA, then my EV on that situation is (.52 * $1,162) - $424 = +$180.24. If I multiply that by the chance of situation occuring, I get +$129.77.

So, if I add situation #1 and situation #2 together, I get an overall EV of +$51.79.

Based on this analysis, I should just shove. Josh, is that what you conclude?

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]

Based on this analysis, I should just shove. Josh, is that what you conclude?

[/ QUOTE ]

that looks right. also realize that this is super conservative (i didn't take into account the stars-factor where AJo is the nuts)

regarding the 28%, it's just AA(6) + KK(1)/[AA(6) + KK(1) + QQ(6) + AK (12)], though i definitely should've included JJ, probably TT, and a 5-10% bluff factor. that all obviously benefits you

there's also a little problem in that you're 25 bb deeper with SB, who *should* have AA/KK, and that 25 bb as a 4-1 dog comes right off the top of the EV of the other 75 bb vs those 2.

as a sidenote i don't know how you approached the differing stacksizes and weird scenarios where you can beat SB for the sidepot, but lose to MP. the way i'd go at that would be to first pretend like everyone's stack is the same size as MP's stack and calculate an EV. then i'd just calculate the remaining 50 bb sidepot (where you each put in 25 bb), get your EV off that and put it with the other calc. you probably only win something like 15% of the time since the dead cards from MP will frequently contain a K