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#71
11-10-2006, 06:23 PM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
you want to argue the read but im not going to do that. the guy just had AA and i knew it. he reeked of confidence. if i wasnt near 100% certain he had it i wouldntve folded.
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#72
11-10-2006, 06:57 PM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
[ QUOTE ]
you want to argue the read but im not going to do that. the guy just had AA and i knew it. he reeked of confidence. if i wasnt near 100% certain he had it i wouldntve folded. [/ QUOTE ] You've got me backwards. I'm saying that since you are 100% certain you should definitely call. It would be closer to a fold if you weren't 100%, as this classic tell muddies the water a bit.
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#74
11-10-2006, 10:57 PM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you want to argue the read but im not going to do that. the guy just had AA and i knew it. he reeked of confidence. if i wasnt near 100% certain he had it i wouldntve folded. [/ QUOTE ] You've got me backwards. I'm saying that since you are 100% certain you should definitely call. It would be closer to a fold if you weren't 100%, as this classic tell muddies the water a bit. [/ QUOTE ] This is actually exactly right. Because of how certain you are, you won't be so tempted to take one off on a 972 or QQ5 flop. It also means you can release it on a monotone flop that gives you a flushdraw (especially if there are no overcards, making it more likely AT LEAST ONE of your opponents has a flushdraw). Josh
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#75
11-10-2006, 11:59 PM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
Now in another thread I suggested Mike should play a particular hand because he knew for sure the other player had A-A and he accused me of inspissation or insouciance or something. Go figure.
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#77
11-12-2006, 08:31 PM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
you guys are forgetting something in your analysis. you don't close the action and since the 2 other players in this hand are in a pissing contest, you know it is very likely going to be 5-bet (assuming commerce allows it).
This makes the decision lean towards folding. The real issue is how badly the other 2 play and how much value you can extract if you hit.
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#78
11-12-2006, 09:32 PM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
no they have a 4 bet cap at commerce. but having a player behind me on the flop especially on flops where i dont flop a set but should continue anyway is a problem.
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#79
11-12-2006, 11:44 PM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
[ QUOTE ]
But how often are you going to flop a set of jacks and a King or Ace comes with it? [/ QUOTE ] There will be an Ace or King on the board by the river about 24% of the time. If you are against 2 overpairs you will lose 40% of the time to an over set the times you flop a set. At least 20% of the time you will lose the times you do flop a set. I think the decision is much closer than most people seem to believe it is here.
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#80
11-13-2006, 01:13 AM
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Re: outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But how often are you going to flop a set of jacks and a King or Ace comes with it? [/ QUOTE ] There will be an Ace or King on the board by the river about 24% of the time. If you are against 2 overpairs you will lose 40% of the time to an over set the times you flop a set. At least 20% of the time you will lose the times you do flop a set. I think the decision is much closer than most people seem to believe it is here. [/ QUOTE ] If you are against 2 overpairs you will lose 32% of the time to an over set the times you flop a set, not 40%, I believe. Anyway, it’s likely that he’s only against one over-pair, exactly AA. We are considering this. Normally the rule of thumb is implied odd of 10 to 1, to account for it, rather than the 7.5 to 1 odds of flopping a set.
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