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#1
11-09-2006, 06:11 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
Predictions
1) Hilary will finish 2nd in the primaries. It will be close, but not razor-thin. 2) Al Gore will not run, but he will effect the primaries nonetheless (endorsements, appearances, etc). His effect will be positive for whomever he backs. 3) Kerry will not run. 4) Edwards will run. He will get creamed, finishing at least a distant 3rd to Hilary, perhaps worse. 5) Clark will not run. 6) The nomination will go to one of the following four: Richardson, Biden, Vilsack, and Bayh. 7) If Obama runs, all bets are off. However, whether he runs or not, I would be unsurprised to see him be named the VP candidate. 
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#2
11-09-2006, 06:43 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
7) If Obama runs, all bets are off. However, whether he runs or not, I would be unsurprised to see him be named the VP candidate. [/ QUOTE ] I think Obama is actually quite unlikely to be the Veep nominee. Let's look at the potential Democratic tickets. Clinton-Obama. Unless the Dems are reaaaaaaaaaly confident based on polling and focus-grouping this ticket, I don't think they're going to nominate a woman and a black man in the same election. Sorry, but it's the truth. You can find a lot of quotes from Democratic insiders that say as much. Edwards-Obama. Here you run into the Lloyd Bentsen problem: you don't want the Veep candidate to outshine the presidential candidate. This is particularly problematic with Edwards, whom IMO has problems with appearing sufficiently assertive. But it would also be a problem with Bayh, et. al. because of the "charisma gap". Richardson-Obama runs into the minority problem. Clark-Obama is a well balanced ticket, I guess, but I don't know how serious Clark's candidacy is. Gore-Obama, e.g. the Progressive Wet Dream. Maybe too progressive, although it's also a ticket that would get absolutely absurd turnout among the base. The thing is, I don't think both Obama and Gore run for the nomination, and I think Obama probably gets first dibs on making his choice. But I think you could see sort of a quid-pro-quo here, where Obama doesn't run, gets behind Gore, and becomes his Veep. Also, we should keep in mind that Mark Warner remains an extremely attractive Veep candidate for the Dems, unless there was some underlying reason that he withdrew from Presidential consideration.
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#3
11-09-2006, 07:01 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
Gore-Obama, e.g. the Progressive Wet Dream. Maybe too progressive, although it's also a ticket that would get absolutely absurd turnout among the base. The thing is, I don't think both Obama and Gore run for the nomination, and I think Obama probably gets first dibs on making his choice. But I think you could see sort of a quid-pro-quo here, where Obama doesn't run, gets behind Gore, and becomes his Veep. [/ QUOTE ] Oh if dreams could come true. Dvault, Thanks for the list. Well done.
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#6
11-09-2006, 09:13 PM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone explain what is so progressive about Obama? I don't know much about the man besides that he is suddenly the Democrat everyone loves to love. [/ QUOTE ] When you hear him speak, he comes across as very intelligent, rational, and charismatic. He has a lot of the appeal Clinton did. On the issues, he's cut from the liberal cloth pretty well. If he were white and 50+, every Democrat would be jizzing at the chance to nominate him for President. Obama on the Issues
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#7
11-10-2006, 01:02 AM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
I hope Vilsack gets nowhere near either nomination, the man is as boring as corn. Bayh, Obama, Gore, Clinton and Edwards are the only real candidates i see being able to win the P nomination.
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#8
11-10-2006, 01:09 AM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone explain what is so progressive about Obama? I don't know much about the man besides that he is suddenly the Democrat everyone loves to love. [/ QUOTE ] It was his speech at Kerry's convention that put him on the map. Ever since Clinton, all Democratic speeches have had this theme of bribing the voters by giving each individual interest some kind of cookie. Instead of doing this, Obama defended liberalism in a way that everybody on the left wing had been dying to hear for 20 years, by appealing to the community. The quote below from the transcript is probably what did it: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...ech-text_x.htm [ QUOTE ] A belief that we are connected as one people. If there's a child on the south side of Chicago who can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If there's a senior citizen somewhere who can't pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it's not my grandmother. If there's an Arab American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It's that fundamental belief — I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper — that makes this country work. It's what allows us to pursue our individual dreams, yet still come together as a single American family. "E pluribus unum." Out of many, one. [/ QUOTE ]
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#9
11-10-2006, 03:12 AM
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Re: The 2008 Campaign has begun
[ QUOTE ]
A belief that we are connected as one people. If there's a child on the south side of Chicago who can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If there's a senior citizen somewhere who can't pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it's not my grandmother. If there's an Arab American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It's that fundamental belief — I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper — that makes this country work. It's what allows us to pursue our individual dreams, yet still come together as a single American family. "E pluribus unum." Out of many, one. [/ QUOTE ] I still get chills just reading the text. Made me want to campaign for the guy, and I don't even live in the same country.
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